Recent data from Bitcoin and gold ETFs revealed a departure from historical trends this month: instead of flows moving in opposite directions as they normally do, both Bitcoin and gold experienced outflows at the same time.
This rare correlation speaks volumes about the current macroeconomic environment and shifting investor psychology. Bitcoin outflows didn’t benefit gold, and until the Fed’s path is clearer, both assets remain under pressure.
Bitcoin outflows, hard assets are feeling the pain
Traditionally, when investors pull money out of Bitcoin, gold, the ultimate safe-haven asset, sees a surge in inflows, and vice versa. That’s because Bitcoin and gold are seen as alternative stores of value and hedges against traditional financial market risks.
Investors often view them as uncorrelated assets because their prices and demand don’t typically move in tandem with stocks or bonds. However, each asset appeals to different risk appetites and market conditions
Not so this month. Bitcoin ETFs recorded six straight days of outflows, draining nearly $2 billion in late August alone. Meanwhile, outflows from major gold ETFs, such as GLDM, also spiked, with $449 million exiting in just one week.
Despite record Bitcoin outflows and a broader crypto market pullback, Bitcoin ETFs rebounded toward the end of August, with a four-day inflow streak through the pullback. Gold ETFs also saw net inflows during the last days of August 2025, tracking a similar rebound as Bitcoin ETFs, and suggesting a possible change in investor sentiment as the month closes.
Macro uncertainty rules
The backdrop for this unusual behavior is a cocktail of economic crosswinds: uncertainty around Federal Reserve monetary policy, persistent inflation, and signs of a softer labor market. With the Fed’s next move unclear, Bitcoin and gold may not be especially attractive to investors seeking clarity or certainty.
Sticky inflation keeps the Fed hawkish, yet waning job growth undercuts confidence in further rate hikes.
This uncomfortable limbo leaves markets in a risk-off posture, where both speculative and defensive assets struggle to gain traction.
Waiting for the Fed’s next move
Bitcoin, often dubbed “digital gold,” inflows are stalling right now because investors aren’t feeling risk-on. Yet gold, which typically shines in periods of heightened fear, is also not benefiting from Bitcoin outflows.
Inflation concerns and shifting rate expectations are undermining gold’s historic safe-haven narrative. Instead of moving in opposition, both assets faced outflows as investors either shift to cash, seek higher-yielding alternatives, or wait for the Fed’s next move.
Until monetary policy direction becomes clearer, both Bitcoin and gold may continue to face headwinds. Macro investors value certainty, and, at the moment, ambiguity reigns.
This lethal combination makes it difficult for investors to predict whether rates will rise, a recession is coming, or inflation will surge again, leading to broader uncertainty across financial markets.
For now, Bitcoin outflows aren’t benefiting gold, and both assets are caught on the sidelines, waiting for the Fed to declare a new direction.
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