The fertility rate in England and Wales fell to its lowest level on record in 2024. It is the third consecutive year that record has been broken.
Other than a slight jump during the pandemic, birth rates have been falling consistently since 2010. On average, women now have 1.41 babies, compared with 1.42 in 2023 and 1.94 in 2010.
Rates in Scotland are even lower still, according to data released on Tuesday by National Records Scotland. Women there have an average of just 1.25 babies, falling from 1.77 in 2008.
To sustain the size of the global population, demographic experts say women need to have an average of 2.1 babies. This is what they call the “replacement rate”.
A similar rate is required to maintain the population of England and Wales, but it has been below that for more than 50 years. Despite that, the population has increased, largely as a result of immigration.
What’s happening in Britain reflects part of a global trend in declining fertility rates. In South Korea, the country with the lowest fertility rate in the world, women now have fewer than one baby on average – just 0.75.
Fertility remains high in many African countries, however. Somalia has the highest fertility rate in the world, with women there having more than six babies on average.
Despite the declining fertility rate, more babies were born in England and Wales in 2024 compared with 2023, although the 2023 figure was the lowest it had been since 1977.
This is because the population of England and Wales grew by more than 700,000 between 2023 and 2024, mainly due to immigration. So a lower fertility rate is offset by there being more women in the country.
Although fertility rates are falling across England and Wales as a whole, they have risen slightly in London and the West Midlands.
Birmingham was the local authority with the largest increase, rising from 1.61 babies per woman in 2023 to 1.75 in 2024. The largest fall was in Maldon, in Essex, where the number fell from 1.59 to 1.37 per woman.
Since 2014, there has been a fall in fertility in every one of the 303 local authorities for which we have continuous data.
Luton, the local authority with the highest overall fertility rate, where women have an average of exactly two babies, recorded the smallest fall – dropping just 6% in the last 10 years.
In places like Torbay, in Devon, Denbighshire, in north Wales, and the City of Bristol, fertility has fallen by more than a third in the past decade.
Data released last month reveals more information about the demographic make-up of mothers in the UK.
There has been a steady and sustained fall in the number of babies born to British-born mothers, but in 2024 that was offset by an increase in births among those born abroad.
The rise is particularly pronounced among mothers who were born in southern Asia.
In 2024, there were 20,000 more babies born in England and Wales to mothers from that region than there were in 2021 – a rise of almost 50% in just three years.
Births to African mothers have also risen sharply over that period, although there has been an equally rapid fall in babies born to mothers from EU countries, coinciding with Brexit coming into effect.
In 2024, just over a third of babies born in England and Wales had mothers who were born outside the UK, but in some areas foreign-born mothers made up a much higher proportion.
In Luton, for example, which we mentioned earlier, has the highest fertility rate in England and Wales, seven in 10 babies were born to foreign-born mothers in 2024.
As of the 2021 census, the total foreign-born population of Luton was 38%, but many of the foreign-born population will be younger, in age groups more likely to have children.
Birth rates by age
Fertility rates for both men and women are now falling among every age group, and the birth rate among under-30s is the lowest it has ever been.
The number of births to women in their 30s had been rising early this century, but has been steadily falling over the last decade.
In 2024, the average number of babies born to mothers aged between 30 and 34 was the lowest it’s been in more than 20 years.
The average age that mothers have their first child is now 29 years and five months in England and Wales, although there are significant variations in different parts of the country.
In the North East, mothers have their first child shortly after their 28th birthday, on average. In London, it’s three years later – just after turning 31.
The financial burden of low fertility
A combination of women having fewer babies and people living longer means that there is a higher economic burden on each person of working age to support those in retirement.
Demographics expert Dr Paul Morland told Sky News: “In terms of economic society politics, the fundamental problem is that you get more people who are of retirement age [compared with] the number of people working.
“The workers are the ones who are doing the work, paying the taxes, and people over a certain age consume a lot in healthcare – an 80-something consumes five or six times as much as a 20-something.
“The triple lock in the UK means very often that pensioners, even at the very bottom, are better looked after than poor workers. This puts more and more pressure on the state and more and more pressure on labour markets.”
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
