A widely shared cycle model has reopened the debate over whether Bitcoin’s recent rally has already peaked.
According to posts on social platforms, the chart lines up past market cycles and points to a possible top on December 22, 2025, while price action near $117,000 this week keeps both cautious and bullish cases alive.
Cycle Model Points To December Peak
Based on reports, the chart tracks previous peaks occurring over 30 months after prior market lows, then extends that pattern to a 37-month span from the November 2022 bottom.
The projection places a modeled top on December 22, 2025, and the same curve gives a mid-cycle price target near $200,000.
Those time-based markers have drawn attention because they fit a clear pattern: each cycle so far has been longer than the one before it.
Veteran Trader Issues A Risk Scenario
According to public comments, veteran trader Peter Brandt has weighed in with a downside scenario. He gave Bitcoin a 30% chance of having already topped in this cycle and suggested a pullback to about $60,000–$70,000 by November 2026 could come before a later major rally toward $500,000.
I think there is a 30% chance that BTC has topped for this bull market cycle. Next stop then back to $60k to $70k by Nov 2026, then next bull thrust to $500k https://t.co/xPujqCjp9e
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) August 15, 2025
Brandt framed his view as a probability rather than a firm prediction, and that kind of numeric thinking is meant to help traders weigh risk rather than to declare certainty.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading around $117,790, down 0.90% over the past 24 hours. Price has dropped 0.18% over the last seven days and 0.38% over the last month.
Over longer frames, BTC has risen 18% in the last six months and is up 24% year to date. Those figures help explain why opinions diverge: some see a market that has run far and fast, while others point to steady gains that still leave room for more upside.
Signals To Watch Next
Based on market practice, the clearest ways to test these scenarios are flows and positioning. Track ETF and institutional inflows, exchange balances, and derivatives data.
A steady stream of institutional buying would make a long, deep retrace less likely. On the flip side, sustained outflows, rising exchange inventory, or heavy derivative liquidations would strengthen the case for a larger pullback toward the $60k–$70k zone.
Has Bitcoin Already Peaked?
Brandt’s estimate — a 30% chance BTC has already peaked and a possible slide to $60,000–$70,000 by November 2026 before a later push toward $500,000 — gives traders a concrete downside scenario to factor into position sizing and risk plans.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
