For Ukraine – its exhausted, brave soldiers, its thousands of bereaved families mourning their dead, and its beleaguered president – it is exactly what they feared it would be.
They fear the compromise they will be forced to make will be messy, costly, unfair and ultimately beneficial to the invading tyrant who brought death and destruction to their sovereign land.
Six weeks ago, I spoke to President Zelenskyy in London.
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I put it to him in our Sky News interview that Presidents Trump and Putin were heading towards making a deal between themselves, a grand bargain, in which Ukraine was but one piece on the chess board.
Zelenskyy smiled as if to acknowledge the reality ahead.
He paused and then he said this: “We are not going to be a card in talks between great nations, and we will never accept that… I definitely do not want to see global deals between America and Russia.
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“We don’t need it. We are a separate story, a victim of Russian aggression and we will not reward it.”
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It was a response that betrayed his greatest fear – that this will become essentially a Trump negotiation in which Zelenskyy and Ukraine will be told “take it or leave it”.
And, by the way, if you “leave it”, then it will be painful.
Harsh realities
It’s the prospect that now confronts Zelenskyy as Trump and Putin plough ahead on a course that has clear attractions for both of them.
Of course, Zelenskyy is right to say there can be no deal without Ukraine. But there are harsh realities at play here.
President Trump wants a deal on Ukraine – any deal – that he can chalk up as a win. He wants it badly and he wants it now.
It’s the impediment to a broader strategic deal with Putin and he wants it out of the way. It’s what he does, and it’s the way he does it. And President Putin knows it.
He knows Trump, he sees an opportunity in Trump, and he can’t get across Russia to Alaska fast enough. He will be back at global diplomacy’s top table.
Always a deal to be done
Make no mistake, when Trump says he just wants to stop the killing, he means it. Such wanton loss of young lives offends him. He keeps saying it.
He sees war, by and large, as an unnecessary waste of life and of money. Deals are there to be done. There’s always a deal.
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Sadly for Ukraine, in this case, it is unlikely to be a fair deal.
How can any deal be “fair” when you are the victim of outrageous brutality and heinous crimes.
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But it may well be the deal they have to take unless they want to fight an increasingly one-sided war with much less help from President Trump and America.
A senior UK diplomat told me if things turn out as feared, it should not be called a land-for-peace deal. It should be called annexation “because that’s what it is”.
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But here’s the rub.
Peace, calm, the end of the nightly terror of war has much to recommend it. In short, a bad peace can often seem better than no peace. But, ultimately, rewarded dictators always come back for more.
If Ukraine has to accept a bad peace, then it will want clear security guarantees to make sure it cannot happen again.
It is the very least they deserve.
There is much at stake in Alaska.
