The first footage of Steve Witkoff in Moscow probably won’t fill Ukraine and its allies with confidence.
The US Special Envoy can be seen strolling leisurely through a park near the Kremlin, alongside Russia’s investment chief Kirill Dmitriev.
Witkoff has his shades on and is in no obvious hurry.
In another video, he is smiling and shaking hands with Vladimir Putin – not the look of a man who is supposedly in town to talk tough with the Russian president.
Despite the laid-back appearance of its emissary, though, there is a sense the Trump administration’s stance towards Moscow has substantially hardened.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
The US president’s rhetoric is the sharpest it’s ever been. What’s more, it’s been consistent.
Donald Trump has criticised Putin previously – in May, he called him “crazy” – but each time has swung back into friendlier territory.
First volcano eruption in 600 years ‘may be linked to huge earthquake in Russia’s far east’
India hints it will keep buying Russian oil – despite Trump threats
Trump orders two nuclear subs to be moved closer to Russia
In the past few weeks, however, his language has only got harsher, describing Russia’s continued attacks as “disgusting” and shortening a deadline for Moscow to end the war from 50 days to 10. It expires on Friday.
Read more from Sky News:
What nuclear weapons look like today
‘Ketamine Queen’ given trial date after Friends star’s death
If Trump doesn’t get what he wants, he’s threatened to impose sanctions on Russia, and secondary sanctions on countries that buy its exports.
That could prove painful for the Kremlin if those secondary tariffs force countries like China and India to stop buying up Russian oil, which until now has provided an economic lifeline to Moscow.
But will US pressure work? Will Witkoff be able to extract any meaningful concessions?
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
I think it’s unlikely Putin will agree to a full ceasefire. Russian forces continue to advance on the battlefield, so there’s no military incentive to pause the fighting.
And there’s been no sign that he’s willing to dilute his goal of seizing four eastern Ukrainian territories in their entirety.
But he may offer Washington something, which can be presented as a concession, in order to stave off sanctions.
We’ve seen that before when Trump’s patience has worn thin.
There was the three-day Easter truce, and the 30-day moratorium on strikes targeting energy infrastructure.
Be the first to get Breaking News
Install the Sky News app for free
This time, there are reports that Russia might agree to an air truce.
But it’s unclear if another pseudo-ceasefire will be enough to placate the American president.
