The possible top for the Bitcoin price this cycle has been a topic of hot debate over the last few years. The rally to a new all-time high above $123,000 back in July introduced renewed vigor into the arguments, as some believe the leading cryptocurrency has reached its highest point, and others continue to expect higher prices. The calls have ranged from $150,000 to as high as $500,000, but the possibility of a major Bitcoin price crash remains as the market matures.
What Previous Cycle Performances Say About Bitcoin Price Top
Crypto and market expert Mike Alfred took to the X (formerly Twitter) platform to share where he believes that the Bitcoin price is headed. Alfred uses the previous cycle performances and their subsequent bear market lows to do this, showing how much the price could crash from here.
Firstly, there was the 2014 bull market that saw the Bitcoin price crash from $1,000 to $200, which was an 80% crash from the top. Then again, in 2018, the Bitcoin price would crash from its high of $20,000 to a bear market low of $3,200, which was an 84% price decline.
Following the same trend, there was a similar deep decline in price after the Bitcoin price hit above $69,000 in 2021, before crashing hard in 2022 due to factors like the FTX collapse. Ultimately, the cryptocurrency would bottom at around $16,000 before rebounding, an approximately 80% decrease in price.
Using this trend, the crypto analyst does expect that the Bitcoin price will crash by a similar metric, but not before hitting a new high above $300,000. In the post, Alfred puts the current Bitcoin cycle top as high as $312,000 before there is a market crash.
Once this level is achieved, then the next wave is expected to see the price crash back down as low as $75,000, which would be a 76% decline. Additionally, the analyst does not see this happening in 2025, but rather expects that the crash will happen in 2026 instead.
In response to the post, another X user, Becky, disagreed that the Bitcoin price would not be able to reach $300,000, pointing to the Realized Volatility showing it is not possible. However, Alfred debunks this with the fact that realized volatility is not static and has not accurately predicted periods of higher volatility before.
