It is “Liberation Day” III – the third tariff deadline set by Donald Trump.
From today, countries without bilateral trade agreements face reciprocal tariffs – ranging from 25% to 50% – with a baseline of 15% to 20% for any not making a deal.
He has delayed twice, from April to July and from July to August, but hammered this date home in his trademark caps-on style: “THE AUGUST FIRST DEADLINE STANDS STRONG, AND WILL NOT BE EXTENDED. A BIG DAY FOR AMERICA!!!”
“Will not be extended” for anyone but Mexico, it seems. The country secured a 90-day extension at the last minute, with Mr Trump citing the “complexities” of the border.
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By close of business on the eve of deadline, he had a handful of framework deals – some significant – including the UK (10%), the EU, Japan and South Korea (15%), Indonesia and the Philippines (19%), Vietnam (20%).
On the EU agreement, which he struck in Scotland, the president said: “It’s a very powerful deal, it’s a big deal, it’s the biggest of all the deals.”
But what happened to the “90 deals in 90 days” touted by the White House earlier this year?
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The short answer is they were replaced by letters of instruction to pay a tariff set by the US.
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Amid of flurry of late activity, the US played hardball with major trading partners like Canada.
“For the rest of the world, we’re going to have things done by Friday,” said US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick – the “rest of the world” meaning everyone but China.
There is, apparently, the “framework of a deal” between the world’s two largest economies, but talks between Washington and Beijing are continuing.
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In terms of wins, he can claim some significant deals and point to his tariffs having generated an impressive $27bn (£20.4bn) in June, not bad for a single month.
But the legality of the approach is under siege – with the US Court of International Trade ruling that the “Liberation Day” tariffs exceeded the president’s authority, with enforcement paused pending appeal.
The deadline has stirred the pot, forcing a handful of deals onto the table. Whether they stick or survive legal scrutiny is far from settled.
But the playbook remains the same – threaten the world with trade chaos, whittle it down, celebrate the wins, and pray no one checks what’s legal.
