At the weekend, Downing Street said recognition of Palestine was “a matter of when, not if”.
So why now?
“We will recognise the state of Palestine in September before the United Nations General Assembly”, Sir Keir Starmer announced on Tuesday, in what looks like another U-turn.
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Was it pressure from the more than 250 MPs, most of whom are Labour, who wrote to the prime minister last week calling for recognition? Almost certainly.
The PM has a lot of form now for bowing to pressure from Labour MPs poised to rebel against government policy.
The demand to the PM in the letter orchestrated by Labour MP Sarah Champion, who chairs the all-party international development select committee, was for the government to recognise Palestine at the United Nations conference on the Middle East currently taking place in New York.
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Foreign Secretary David Lammy was cheered and applauded when he repeated the pledge made by Sir Keir in a near-empty room in Downing Street to TV cameras and just two journalists.
But there are conditions. And the early response from the Israelis was not encouraging.
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First, the PM said, “end the appalling situation in Gaza“, then “a ceasefire, no annexation in the West Bank and a long-term peace process that delivers a two-state solution”.
Good luck, as they say, with that.
If the shift in the PM’s position wasn’t the result of pressure from MPs, was it a potential mutiny inside the cabinet?
It followed a lengthy cabinet meeting after ministers were dragged from their sun beds and allowed to dial in remotely rather than turn up at 10 Downing Street in person.
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It was reported before the meeting that seven cabinet ministers, including big hitters Mr Lammy and the Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, backed recognising Palestine.
So yes, the PM could see that the way cabinet ministers were moving and holding out against recognition was becoming unsustainable.
Was it the result of pressure from President Macron. That was certainly a major factor too. After “le bromance” during the president’s state visit, the two leaders spoke at length at the weekend.
Asked what difference recognising Palestine would make in practice, Sir Keir said the aim was that it would help improve conditions on the ground in Gaza.
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Ahead of his statement, the PM briefed Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the King of Jordan, whose country is spearheading the air drops of aid into Gaza. More phone calls with world leaders are planned in the coming hours.
Sir Keir wouldn’t answer a question about what assurances he’d received from President Trump during their talks in Scotland about using his influence with the Israeli PM to allow aid into Gaza.
That is the most urgent priority, as the PM acknowledged. And since President Trump, speaking about the horrible TV pictures from Gaza, memorably said “you can’t fake that” and “every ounce of food” should be allowed in, it seems he did indeed listen to Sir Keir’s pleas in Scotland.
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So even if he has indeed bowed to pressure from MPs and cabinet ministers, Sir Keir has achieved a significant breakthrough in the past 48 hours or so.
He won’t please everyone, obviously, but no politician ever did in the Middle East.
