Democrats are facing a redistricting problem as Republicans in Texas — and potentially other states — are redrawing their maps to create more Republican-leaning seats. But state Democrats say that the real problem is the party doesn’t do enough to try to flip state legislatures and put Democrats in charge of redrawing the lines in the future.
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee calls on its party to rethink their “failed federal-first strategy,” in a memo sent to donors and strategists obtained by POLITICO, and instead invest in winning seats in state legislatures ahead of 2030 redistricting.
“To have a shot at winning and maintaining a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives moving forward, Democrats must reassess our failed federal-first strategy and get serious about winning state legislatures ahead of redistricting,” the memo said. “Not just in the final months of 2030, but starting now.”
The memo indicates that 39 of 50 states give state legislatures control over congressional lines, and Republicans have been significantly more successful in controlling statehouses since investing millions into their “REDMAP” strategy in 2010. Following the 2024 election, seven states had veto-proof Democratic majorities, while 18 had veto-proof Republican majorities. The DLCC said failing to change that lopsided math will keep them out of power.
“It turns out that the road to power is not necessarily through Pennsylvania,” said Paul Begala, a strategist who worked for both the Clinton and Obama campaigns. “It runs through Lansing and Austin and Albany and Frankfurt [and] Columbus.”
Begala said in an interview that Democrats’ current deficit in state legislatures is a result of the party’s constant search for a messiah like Clinton or Obama to lead them to victory. He said that search has pushed the party to misallocate the broad resources it has at play — investing in hard-to-win high-profile races rather than thinking long-term about building power.
“I’ve watched this party pour $110 million into Jaime Harrison’s campaign against Lindsey Graham. That was a fool’s errand,” Begala said. “How many Michigan Senate seats could we have picked up for that?”
The DLCC’s memo proposed a year-by-year plan to increase Democratic seats, beginning with Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin in 2026. Four-year state senate terms beginning in 2027 are key, the memo points out, as are state house and assembly races in 2028, 2029 and 2030.
Democrats have room to make gains in Texas, Mississippi and Oklahoma over the next five years, Begala says. North Carolina, Michigan and Pennsylvania are also key targets for Democrats, though they each come with hurdles, like a hostile state supreme court in North Carolina.
The memo emphasized “anchoring” — or starting with downballot races and then moving to statewide and federal races — was part of Democrats’ successful strategy to flip Colorado from red to blue over the last 25 years (though the state also benefitted from a major demographic shift that benefited Democrats too). The DLCC and Begala say it’s key to keep Democrats afloat in upcoming redistricting battles.
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