When Donald Trump arrived at the White House for the first time nine years ago, he vowed to tear up the rule book, upend the world order and fundamentally change America’s approach to its foreign relations.
Nearly a decade on, aged by realpolitik and a war on the European continent and conflicts in the Middle East, President Trump is now treading a path that all the second-term presidents before him took when it comes to Russia.
He spent his first term trying to appease Vladimir Putin, courting him as he did Kim Jong Un and Xi Jinping, perhaps a mix of respect for other strong male leaders and business-like charm.
Don’t forget, Trump’s worldview is shaped entirely by his time as a New York real estate mogul. He has his patch of the world, and Putin has his. There should be no reason for frosty relations.
But Trump is not dealing with another property tycoon. Putin is a maximalist former KGB officer who cut his teeth in the murky underworld of the decaying Soviet Union where deception and double-dealing was the currency.
Putin plays chess, whereas Trump plays Monopoly.
Now in his second term, Trump has turned his back on the Russian leader somewhat.
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His latest decision to sell Ukraine weapons through NATO and threaten tariffs on Russia if they do not come to an agreement within 50 days is evidence of his frustration – and the first lady’s advice.
But 50 days is child’s play for a man who deals in decades, if not centuries.
No doubt the Russians are shrugging this threat off.
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Putin is playing the long game – he has seen out American presidents, and he will probably see the back of Donald Trump.
For now, it seems that Ukraine has come out on top. But the only thing as constant as Vladimir Putin is Trump’s unpredictability.
