Bitcoin has set a new all-time high above $121,000, and the options market on Deribit is showing clear signs of hedging pressure and gamma-driven pinning around this level.
Traders are in a market structured heavily in favor of upside exposure, with positioning and Greek profiles aligning at a delicate inflection point. Current open interest and premium distribution indicate that how these positions unwind could shape the next leg in Bitcoin’s rally.
Open interest in BTC options has steadily recovered from the early June dip, rising from 335,000 BTC to nearly 394,000 BTC as of July 14. The total notional value is back to $46.87 billion on a dollar basis, with Deribit accounting for 81%. BTC’s price increase over the same period has contributed to the rise in notional, but the surge in total contracts suggests new speculative inflows, not merely mark-to-market adjustments.
Deribit data shows 202,903 BTC worth of call options currently open, compared to 117,580 BTC in puts. While the raw number of contracts already reveals a clear tilt toward upside exposure, the disparity becomes more striking when measured in monetary terms. Calls have a notional value of $24.86 billion and a market value of $1.92 billion, whereas puts have a total notional value of $14.41 billion but just $106.39 million in market value. This means that although the notional value of puts is relatively high, indicating a sizable volume of downside coverage, the actual premium invested in those positions is minimal.
Notional value refers to the total underlying exposure of an option if exercised, in this case, the BTC amount multiplied by the strike price. On the other hand, market value reflects the current price of those options or the cost paid to acquire them. In options trading, notional value speaks to scale, while market value captures sentiment and risk appetite.
The stark difference between these two values for puts indicates a lack of conviction behind downside protection. Most existing put positions are far out-of-the-money, layered around the $100,000 strike or below, where the likelihood of these contracts being profitable at expiry is low. As a result, their premiums are deeply discounted, making them cheap to hold but relatively ineffective as real hedges.
Traders may be deploying them as low-cost insurance or as part of broader strategies like collars or spreads, rather than making directional bets on a decline. This contrasts with the call side, where higher premiums are concentrated around at-the-money and slightly out-of-the-money strikes, such as $115,000, $120,000, and $130,000.
Option strike clusters reveal focal zones
A key feature of the current options setup is the clustering of open interest around specific strike prices. The most concentrated levels of activity are:
- $100,000: 9,620 puts and 6,050 calls ($1.92 billion notional)
- $115,000: 15,080 calls and 2,530 puts ($2.16 billion notional)
- $120,000: 20,160 calls and 951 puts ($2.59 billion notional)
- $130,000: 16,150 calls and 174 puts ($2.00 billion notional)
- $140,000: 18,030 calls and 265 puts ($2.24 billion notional)
These figures show a strong upward ladder of call positioning, with the $120,000 strike currently serving as a key inflection. With spot trading just above this level, the market is effectively pressing against its most crowded call wall. The low number of puts at these upper strikes indicates little interest in hedging against a downside reversal.
Option Greeks provide further insight into why BTC holds close to the $121,000 mark. Gamma peaks just above $123,000, forming a classic bell curve around the current spot price. Dealers short gamma in this region must adjust their hedges frequently, buying BTC as it rises and selling as it falls. This suppresses volatility while the price stays within the gamma apex range. If spot breaks materially above or below, the suppression effect fades, and volatility can resurge.
Delta shows a sharp transition between –0.25 and +0.45 near $121,000-$123,000. That means a small move in spot can flip dealer hedging behavior from net short to net long, potentially triggering rapid buying from desks caught offside. This tells us that the $121,000 to $125,000 range is psychologically and structurally important.
Theta is also steepest near the current range, suggesting that time decay is working hardest against option holders right where most speculative capital is concentrated. Vega also peaks at $123,000, indicating that volatility sensitivity is maximized there.
The current structure of the options market suggests that traders are net short calls at key strike prices, particularly at above $120,000. As Bitcoin remains above these levels, options traders will be forced to delta-hedge by buying BTC in spot or futures, which can push prices higher. This is a relatively common short-gamma feedback loop and likely one of the forces sustaining Bitcoin near its all-time high.
If BTC hovers around $121,000, gamma pinning should hold the price range tight, and volatility may remain suppressed into the July 15 expiry. A breakout above $125,000 would trigger aggressive dealer hedging and a possible squeeze toward $130,000.
With calls dominant, this could create an accelerated upward move with limited friction. However, a reversal below $118,000 would flip delta and reduce hedging demand. Given the thin put structure, a reversal could gather speed quickly if long calls are abandoned.
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