US federal investigators closed parallel criminal and civil probes into prediction market Polymarket, issuing letters earlier this month that ended inquiries by both the Justice Department and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as Bloomberg News reported.
The platform enables traders to bet on yes-or-no outcomes using stablecoins on Polygon and has faced scrutiny since a January 2022 CFTC settlement required it to exclude US customers.
Investigators later examined whether American users continued to wager through virtual private networks.
Polymarket processed roughly $2.6 billion in volume during November’s US election season, drawing law‑enforcement attention as trading spiked.
Regulatory reset
Agents escalated the matter eight days after the November vote, raiding CEO Shayne Coplan’s SoHo apartment and seizing his phone.
Coplan denounced the search as an overreach tied to the outgoing Biden team’s stance on digital asset companies.
In a July 15 post on X, Coplan said the platform “cooperated and engaged” with authorities and “has been cleared of any wrongdoing,” adding that “justice prevailed.”
The decision to close the probes aligns with a broader policy shift.
Capitol Hill has labeled the current legislative push “Crypto Week,” and Congress plans a House floor vote that could send the first comprehensive crypto bill to President Donald Trump for signature.
According to the report, the White House has also tapped venture capital executive and former CFTC Commissioner Brian Quintenz to return and lead the derivatives regulator, signaling a friendlier approach to oversight for prediction markets.
Path to licensed US marketplace
With the investigations resolved, the report highlighted that Polymarket can now explore formal re-entry into the US.
Options include applying to operate as a designated contract market or acquiring an entity that already holds a CFTC license.
The firm has recently announced a partnership with X and xAI to deliver on-platform event forecasts, moves that could support expansion under a compliant framework.
Polymarket originally agreed to pay $1.4 million and delist three markets to settle the 2022 CFTC action.
Company engineers then installed geofencing tools, although regulators questioned whether US traders were still accessing its site.
The closure letters indicate that investigators found no evidence of breaches of previous obligations, clearing a significant hurdle before any licensing application.
For now, Polymarket’s clearance removes immediate legal risk while lawmakers discuss new rules.
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