Bitcoin surged to a new all-time high against the US dollar on July 10, hitting $111,683 on Binance before closing the day even higher at $115,244. The breakout marked another milestone for dollar-based investors in Bitcoin’s 2025 bull cycle.
But while the headlines celebrated a fresh record, BTC told a different story when priced in euros or pounds. The BTC-EUR pair ended the day at €95,720, still 1.8% below its March peak. BTC-GBP barely inched up to £82,148, shy of its previous all-time high set in April. A strong euro and stable pound erased Bitcoin’s nominal gains when translated into foreign currencies.
Over the past 30 days, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen 1.5%, while the euro index (EXY) gained 2.6% and the pound index (BXY) ticked up 0.3%. These shifts in currency valuations meant that Bitcoin was priced differently across fiat pairs, making it look like it’s breaking out in one currency and stagnating in another.
However, Bitcoin saw a massive 5.7% spike late Thursday into Friday morning, marking a new all-time high of $118,400. Even though the price in dollars is now over $6,000 above its record, in pounds and dollars, we have yet to see a new all-time high.
Why the USD ATH came first
Bitcoin’s USD-denominated rally was partly driven by macro shifts favoring non-dollar currencies. US interest rate expectations have softened, with money markets pricing in two quarter-point cuts by September. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank has shown little inclination to ease further after June’s rate pause. Eurozone PMI data also surprised to the upside, boosting cyclical demand for the euro.
These trends weakened the dollar broadly, pushing the DXY to its lowest levels since January. Because Bitcoin is typically quoted in USD, a weakening dollar inflates the BTC-USD rate even when BTC’s purchasing power in other currencies remains unchanged.
Currency math explains the rest. The BTC-USD rate is simply a product of BTC-EUR and EUR-USD, or BTC-GBP and GBP-USD. When EUR-USD or GBP-USD rises, BTC-USD climbs, even if BTC-EUR and BTC-GBP stay flat. That’s exactly what happened. At the peak, EUR-USD rose to 1.173, while GBP-USD pushed above 1.363, enough to drive the dollar quote to record levels even as euro and pound quotes stalled.
While this might seem like a technicality, it has real implications. First, investors outside the US aren’t seeing the same returns. For euro-based investors who bought the March high near €97,500, Bitcoin remains slightly underwater, while Americans proclaim new records.
Second, FX risk now plays a larger role in crypto investing. Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US are priced in dollars, but Europe-listed products track BTC-EUR. When the euro strengthens, those funds lag in NAV growth and flows. Since early July, AUM in euro-denominated ETPs has grown more slowly than US ETFs despite similar BTC performance.
Third, it matters for treasury adoption. Corporate treasuries looking to hold Bitcoin must evaluate it in terms of their own reporting currency. A British or European company may look at July’s USD ATH and conclude Bitcoin hasn’t yet broken new ground, limiting its appeal as a reserve asset until local fiat valuations catch up.
The euro’s strength explains why BTC-EUR was hit the hardest. The EXY rose 2.6% over the past month, far outpacing the 0.9% gain in BTC-USD and overwhelming any crypto-native momentum. BTC-EUR ended the period lower than where it started, down 1.7% despite Bitcoin’s global rally.
Sterling has been more stable. The BXY rose just 0.3%, nearly in line with the 0.3% gain in BTC-GBP. As a result, BTC-GBP was within 4% of its prior record when traditional UK markets closed. UK investors may soon get their local ATH, with Bitcoin now £2,100 away from a new record. In euros, Bitcoin is even further away as of press time, with 5% more to go to hit its peak, which was hit in January.
If the dollar stabilizes or rebounds, Bitcoin’s USD pair may stall, unlocking upside for BTC-EUR and BTC-GBP. A reversal in the strength of the euro and pound would allow Bitcoin’s value in other currencies to catch up with the USD rally.
Three macro scenarios could close this gap. First, the Fed could cut rates just once instead of twice as projected, thus slowing dollar outflows. Second, the ECB could hint at a renewed risk for a recession, weakening the euro, and bringing new strength to BTC-EUR. Finally, political jitters in the UK could cause the sterling to slip.
In each case, the relative value of foreign currencies would drop, lifting BTC-EUR and BTC-GBP even if Bitcoin itself goes sideways.
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