The fallout from the catastrophic flooding that has killed over 100 people in central Texas is raising new questions about how the Trump administration’s cuts to the National Weather Service could affect the forecasting for major storms across the country.
That flooding was brought on by torrential rainfall that caused the Guadalupe River to rise 26 feet in 45 minutes. While some local officials have said they didn’t know the flooding was coming, the National Weather Service, and many meteorologists who rely on its services, say forecasts in Texas accurately predicted the flood risk and that the organization issued timely alerts.
But the dispute has drawn attention to the larger efforts of the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency to shrink the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which is the parent agency of the National Weather Service. As part of its efforts, it cut nearly 600 employees from the weather service earlier this year by firing probationary employees and encouraging early retirements.
Those cuts have apparently extended to Maine, a state that has seen its fair share of serious flooding and storms in recent years, and is on track to experience many more.
NOAA officials did not answer questions about the extent of any staffing and service cuts at Maine’s two national weather service forecast offices, in Gray and Caribou.
But in March, the Gray office suspended twice-daily weather balloon launches because of a staffing shortage, a move meteorologists say has impacted forecast accuracy in the region because of a lack of data from the upper atmosphere.
The office also apparently lost one of its three top meteorologists sometime in the winter, and his position remains unfilled, according to a document listing regional leadership at the National Weather Service that has been updated throughout the year.
In Caribou, the impact is less clear, with some officials asserting that the system is continuing to run smoothly.
Darren Woods, director of the Aroostook County Emergency Management Agency, said he had not seen any change in data the agency is receiving from the service. About 90 percent of the weather data the county agency uses comes from the federal service.
Louise Fode, a warning coordination meteorologist at the Caribou office of the weather service, echoed those remarks.
“I would say that’s not a concern,” Fode said. “We’re still providing the same quality of forecast service that we always have been.”
A spokesperson for the national offices of NOAA said in a statement, “The National Weather Service continues to meet its core missions amid recent reorganization efforts and is taking steps to prioritize critical research and services that keep the American public safe and informed. NWS is committed to investing in new technology and prioritizing public safety.”
The National Weather Service was granted an exemption to hire new employees for a “targeted number of permanent, mission-critical field positions,” according to the spokesperson. A union that represents National Weather Service workers told The New York Times the agency would hire 126 employees. But ads for the jobs have yet to be posted.
But across the country, independent experts argue that further cuts to NOAA will hinder the ability of government agencies to respond to weather threats.
NOAA is projected to have its funding slashed by more than a quarter in fiscal year 2026. Its congressionally submitted budget estimate, released on June 30, asks for $4.5 billion, down from $6.1 billion in 2025.
That budget would eliminate the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research — NOAA’s research arm — and more than $700 million in spending that funds climate and weather research, enabling “better forecasts” and “earlier warnings for natural disasters,” according to the office’s website
Budget cuts would also shut down the National Severe Storms Laboratory, pushing the burden of its research onto a few remaining programs that are set to be transferred from NOAA to the National Weather Service.
It’s a dangerous slope, experts say, as climate change intensifies extreme weather events in New England and nationwide.
Extreme precipitation events in the Northeast have risen by around 60 percent over the past 70 years, according to data compiled in the Fifth National Climate Assessment. It’s the largest increase of any region in the U.S.
“In general, it relates to the Northeast region being at the convergence of air masses,” Maine State Climatologist Sean Birkel said. “As the climate warms and circulation overall is intensified, it tends to focus more moisture in this region.”
Intense coastal flooding in January of last year destroyed structures and set records up and down Maine’s coast. A December 2023 storm left two dead and nearly 420,000 without power in central and western Maine under a deluge of rain and wind that caused both the Kennebec and Androscoggin rivers to crest their banks.
In the wake of the 2023 storm, Gov. Janet Mills claimed the National Weather Service gave an insufficient storm warning.
“The National Weather Service did not predict five or six inches of rain in any community in Maine,” Mills said in a press conference after touring the flood damage.
The NWS disputed that claim then — just as it is in Texas now.
