Bitcoin’s market cap reached a new all-time high in late May, touching $2.22 trillion before retreating to $2.13 trillion at the end of June.
But while the headline price wavered, a closer look at Bitcoin’s full valuation stack reveals a much deeper and more resilient layer of capital inflows. Realized, delta, and thermo cap expanded throughout the first half of 2025, pointing to persistent investment even as spot prices cooled from euphoric levels.
These alternative capitalization measures are crucial for understanding what’s happening below the surface of Bitcoin’s price. Market cap is simply the circulating supply multiplied by the spot price. It offers a snapshot of value but is highly reactive and doesn’t account for how much capital has actually entered the network.
Realized cap, by contrast, adds up the value of each coin at the price it last moved on-chain, offering a view into what holders paid for their BTC. Delta cap subtracts early, low-cost coins from the equation to focus on what can be considered “capital at risk.” Thermo cap represents the cumulative dollar cost of issuing Bitcoin, summarizing what has been paid to miners to secure the network.
Realized cap hits new highs daily
As of June 30, Bitcoin’s realized cap stood at $958.01 billion, up from $812.95 billion at the beginning of the year. This $145 billion increase is especially noteworthy because it reflects newly acquired coins being moved on-chain at higher prices. Unlike market cap, which declined slightly from May’s peak, realized cap has continued climbing almost uninterrupted, setting new highs daily throughout most of the second quarter.
The implications are clear: coins are being acquired at elevated prices and held rather than sold, which marks a sharp contrast to frothy periods where realized cap stagnates while price surges. It also shows that demand hasn’t vanished with the market’s cooling and that capital is still flowing in, just more discreetly.
Delta cap tracks the institutional bid
Delta cap, which netted out early-cycle coins by subtracting the average cap from the realized cap, also showed strong growth. It rose from $572.42 billion to $667.67 billion in the first six months of the year, up $95.25 billion, or nearly 17%. The slope of this increase follows inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, particularly into funds from BlackRock and Fidelity.
Because delta cap is designed to track more recent capital entering the network, its steady climb suggests that buying pressure is coming not from recycled retail coins but from fresh participants entering the market with conviction. This helps explain why the sell-off in late March, which saw market cap drop by over $350 billion, left realized and delta caps largely untouched. The capitulation, if it can even be called that, came from more liquid coins rather than core holdings.
MVRV cooling but not collapsing
The market cap to realized cap (MVRV) ratio is often used to track how “overheated” the market is. This gauge opened the year at 2.30 and now sits around 2.23. It dipped as low as 1.82 during the March correction, a level that has preceded renewed upside in previous cycles. At current levels, MVRV suggests the market is far from overextended yet still firmly above its long-term mean of 1.5.
The key takeaway is that Bitcoin’s price growth has been supported by proportional increases in realized capital, rather than speculative froth. In prior bull markets, MVRV pushing above 3.5 marked periods of extreme exuberance. The metric has remained comparatively restrained in this cycle despite breaking to new highs above $111,000.
Thermo cap tops $80 billion, still looks cheap
Thermo cap, a measure of cumulative miner revenue in dollar terms, has long been an overlooked metric in Bitcoin valuation. It now stands at $80.60 billion, up from $72.69 billion at the beginning of the year. While the increase may seem modest, it’s notable given that last year’s April halving slashed block rewards in half.
The metric is also helpful for contextualizing Bitcoin’s current market value. As of June 30, the market cap to thermo cap ratio is 26.45. This means the network is valued at roughly 26 times the total dollar amount it has paid miners to secure it. This ratio climbed above 40 during prior cycle peaks, indicating that the market isn’t yet overpaying for security.
Fee revenue spikes in May and early June helped cushion the drop in issuance following the halving. This kept the thermo cap rising well into 2025, albeit at a slower pace than in previous quarters. The result is a network that remains economically sustainable for miners while leaving ample room before valuations appear stretched.
Spot price slows, but cap metrics point to accumulation
Taken together, these metrics show a mature market. While price pulled back from its peak, neither realized nor delta cap rolled over, and thermo cap continued a steady upward grind. The capital structure beneath Bitcoin appears more robust than in previous cycles, bolstered by institutional inflows, long-term holder conviction, and a more sustainable miner revenue model.
This structural strength is even more compelling when we consider the context of macro uncertainty and shifting liquidity. Traditional financial inflows, like ETF creations, now show up on-chain in ways that reinforce rather than destabilize Bitcoin’s valuation foundation. This is especially evident in delta cap’s YTD performance, which aligns closely with net ETF inflows and on-chain acquisition of newly issued supply.
The decline in MVRV, despite a record market cap in May, further reinforces the idea that this bull run, though not devoid of speculation, is not supported by actual investment and not just leverage.
Bitcoin’s first half of 2025 reveals a market that has evolved past its adolescence. Behind every price swing sits a slower, steadier foundation of value accrual. Realized, delta, and thermo cap all point to sustained belief in Bitcoin’s long-term narrative without the blow-off froth that marked previous tops.
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