Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s ability to pass the “big, beautiful bill” is hinging on Sen. Lisa Murkowski.
The Alaska senator has been the subject of an intense whip effort by GOP leaders over the past couple of hours as they try to offer her reassurances on Medicaid and food assistance. Thune, Finance Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) and Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso talked to Murkowski on the floor for roughly an hour overnight. Thune and Murkowski huddled briefly in his office, and they were mum on details when they emerged shortly before 4 a.m.
Just moments ago, the Senate parliamentarian ruled that proposed SNAP carve-outs for an expanded list of states including Alaska are compliant with the Byrd rule. But the parliamentarian ruled a provision that would have boosted federal payments for Medicaid in Alaska and four other states is noncompliant, according to a person granted anonymity to share the decision.
Murkowski is also among the Republicans who have been pushing an amendment to undo the rollback of clean-energy credits under the Biden-era climate law.
Thune insisted to reporters moments ago that senators were closing in on the end of their vote-a-rama.
“We’re close,” he said, adding that they have a few more amendments from senators and a final so-called wraparound amendment to come.
In a potential sign of just how dire Thune’s whip count was looking in the wee hours, the majority leader huddled in his office with Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who’s long said he would be a “no” on the bill over its debt-ceiling hike.
Another big unknown right now is where Sen. Susan Collins will fall. The Maine senator reminded us less than two hours ago that she’s “said all along that I have concerns with the bill” and also reiterated, when prompted by reporters, that she would have preferred breaking out the tax portion of the policy package on a separate track. Certainly not helping win Collins over: Her bid to boost money for rural hospitals went up in flames.
And major policy fights remain unresolved, including Sen. Rick Scott’s (R-Fla.) divisive amendment to scale back federal payments under the Affordable Care Act’s Medicaid expansion. Scott has leadership’s support on this one and said he expects it to pass. But several GOP senators have openly raised concerns with it.
What else we’re watching:
— Megabill goes to House Rules: Assuming the Senate passes the bill, the House is expected to bring the bill to the Rules Committee at noon on Tuesday, though two people with direct knowledge of the plans say it could get pushed amid delays with the Senate vote-a-rama.
— The next funding battle begins: Senate appropriators plan to move forward with marking up fiscal 2026 government funding bills starting next week. House Appropriations is scheduled to vote July 10 on the Commerce, Justice, Science bill and the Energy and Water Development bill. House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) wants to finish marking up all 12 funding bills by the end of July.
