It’s getting late early for John Cornyn.
Yet another poll shows the four-term incumbent lagging well behind his hard-right challenger, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, in next year’s primary.
The poll, conducted on behalf of a Paxton-allied super PAC, shows the Texas attorney general with a commanding 19-point lead over the incumbent — 57 to 38 percent — in a head-to-head matchup of Texas Republican primary voters.
It’s the latest data pointfor national Republicans who see Cornyn flailing with primary voters but worry about the general election prospectsfor Paxton, who has faced both indictment and impeachment.
The race has increasingly become a topic of worry in Republican circles as operatives dread the prospect of an ugly, expensive primary that could potentially provide an opening for Democrats in the Lone Star State.
Perhaps most remarkable, the poll shows Paxton with higher name ID than Cornyn, who has long been a national figure on Capitol Hill. Eighty-nine percent of primary voters have an opinion of Paxton and 84% of Cornyn. Both are viewed positively by the electorate but Paxton is far more well-liked. His net favorable-unfavorable ratio is 70 to 18 percent, while Cornyn’s is 53 to 30 percent.
The poll continues a trend of Paxton being beloved by voters who identify as Trump Republicans. He has a 44-point lead with that demographic, while Paxton lags Cornyn by 15 points among those who identify as Reagan Republicans.
The entrance of Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) into the race —he is considering a run — would make little difference, according to the poll. The two-term congressman from Houston draws equally from both candidates and would finish a distant third.
The poll was conducted by Pulse Research from June 17-22 among 806 Republican primary voters. Texas’ primary will be held on March 3, 2026.
