Bitcoin is once again testing a critical resistance level after surging over 9% since Sunday, fueled by a shift in market sentiment and easing geopolitical tensions. The price now hovers just below the $110,000 mark—a psychological barrier that, if breached, could open the door to a new phase of price discovery. Bulls appear firmly in control of the short-term trend, but confirmation is still needed through a clean breakout above this key threshold.
According to fresh data from CryptoQuant, long-term holders (LTH) continue to play a pivotal role in this cycle. Throughout each of the three major rallies since November 2022, a pattern has emerged: LTH accumulation has preceded every major move higher. Now, at $100K, LTH accumulation is again rising steadily, suggesting this current consolidation could be laying the groundwork for yet another major rally.
With bullish momentum strengthening and structural support intact, all eyes are on Bitcoin’s ability to break above $110K. If it does, the next leg higher could be the strongest yet in this bull cycle.
Bitcoin Consolidates As Long-Term Holders Accumulate Once Again
Bitcoin is currently at a crossroads, holding key structural support yet struggling to define its next move. After rebounding above $105,000, the price remains just 5% away from its all-time high, but market participants are increasingly divided. Some analysts expect a strong breakout above the $110K resistance zone, potentially launching BTC into a new phase of price discovery. Others warn of a possible retracement below $100K, citing waning momentum and uncertain macroeconomic conditions.
Despite this uncertainty, on-chain data from top analyst Axel Adler suggests that Bitcoin’s long-term trend remains intact. Adler highlights a recurring pattern seen in each major rally during this cycle: sustained accumulation by long-term holders (LTH) before sharp price increases. The first notable instance came around the $28K mark, when LTH accumulation over 1–2 months helped fuel the breakout to $60K. A similar phase occurred at $60K, powering BTC’s run to $100K.
Now, Bitcoin is once again showing a growing LTH/STH ratio near the $100K level. Adler believes this phase of accumulation may last another 4–8 weeks before a potential breakout. If the past is any indication, a conservative price projection using a 1.6x multiplier puts the next rally target at approximately $160,000.
BTC Approaches Critical Resistance Near $109K
The chart shows Bitcoin trading at $107,355, pushing firmly into the resistance range between $103,600 and $109,300. After recovering from a brief drop below $100K earlier this month, BTC has climbed steadily and is now less than 2% from the cycle’s key resistance at $109,300. This zone has rejected price several times since March, making a breakout here crucial for confirming entry into price discovery.
Volume has picked up slightly during the latest move, indicating buyer interest. However, the lack of a volume spike still suggests caution among market participants. The 50-day and 100-day SMAs remain upward-sloping and well below current price levels, confirming bullish structure and providing strong dynamic support at $94,898 and $88,470, respectively. The 200-day SMA trails at $72,375, reinforcing the longer-term uptrend.
If bulls manage to break and hold above $109,300, it could trigger a sharp move upward, fueled by short liquidations and renewed bullish momentum. However, another rejection could signal continued consolidation between the key support at $103,600 and resistance above. This price action reflects the broader indecision in the market, as traders await a clear directional signal amid macroeconomic and geopolitical volatility.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
