Dogecoin is once again at a technical crossroads, flashing a rare confluence of bullish indicators—but one wrong move could unravel the setup entirely. In his June 24 video analysis, crypto strategist Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) outlined why Dogecoin’s recent bounce from the $0.14 region may mark the beginning of a new uptrend—or the last gasp before breakdown.
Dogecoin Hits Critical Zone
“We’re hitting a very, very key level, folks,” Kevin stressed. “That being the weekly 200 SMA, the weekly 200 EMA, and again that macro 0.382 Fib.” The confluence of these levels between $0.143 and $0.127 marks what he calls a “make-or-break zone,” and Dogecoin is currently sitting right in the middle of it.
The analyst previously entered a swing long position at $0.141, highlighting the area as a strong risk-reward trade zone. “Worst comes to worst, you could throw your stop loss below that level… but the upside is great,” he said. Since then, DOGE has bounced about 6–7%, but the real test lies ahead.
Kevin noted that this level has acted as structural support since the end of the 2022–2023 bear market. The macro 0.382 Fibonacci retracement, drawn from Dogecoin’s full bull run top to its bear market bottom, aligns with long-standing trendlines and a weekly demand candle. “This is your zone,” he emphasized. “Mark this off on your charts.”
Yet despite the recent bounce, Dogecoin remains beneath all its major daily and 4-hour moving averages. The next critical resistance stands at $0.19. “If you can reclaim $0.19 on Dogecoin, you then break back into this range—the $0.19 to $0.26 range,” Kevin explained, calling it the key to any continuation higher. Until then, he cautions against assuming a full reversal is underway: “Let’s not get too crazy here… still a lot of work to do.”
The RSI also tells a story. Kevin pointed out that Dogecoin’s weekly RSI has repeatedly bounced off the 38 level throughout the current bull cycle. The coin now hovers just above that zone once again. “Anything below 38 on this weekly RSI is going to be a breakdown of that $0.143 to $0.127 range, which would be very, very sketchy at that point,” he warned.
Momentum indicators on multiple time frames are sending mixed signals. The daily chart is flashing oversold conditions, and Kevin’s custom indicator lit up with a buy signal. On the 3-day timeframe, market cipher’s momentum wave is “kind of trying to clip” upward, while money flow is beginning to tick slightly higher. “That three-day candle was very nice,” he added. “That’s the kind you want to see—strong demand candles at major support.”
Still, Kevin urged caution. “If that doesn’t work out and we start to head lower, the daily time frame doesn’t produce the buy signal, doesn’t produce much upside, we start to roll over—then you know your Dogecoin support.”
DOGE/BTC Remains The Focus
On the DOGE/BTC pair, Kevin noted that Dogecoin has returned to an “orange zone” he previously highlighted as critical support. The strength of that zone may determine whether DOGE can hold relative strength against Bitcoin—or continue to bleed lower as BTC dominance increases. “Doge will follow Bitcoin at the end of the day,” he reiterated. “Anyone not doing their Dogecoin analysis in tandem with Bitcoin and USDT dominance—be suspect of that analysis.”
Kevin concluded with a warning rooted in experience. “I’ve been in this game a long time. The first move out of these patterns… sometimes it’s the wrong move. It traps people.” While a reversal may be underway, confirmation is everything—and the climb above $0.19 remains the gatekeeper. For now, Dogecoin teeters on the edge. The signals are there—but so is the risk.
At press time, DOGE traded at $0.166.
