Why did Israel attack Iran? Certainly, it was worried about the threat of a nuclear weapon being developed.
But it’s also becoming clearer that there was a second reason – that this is about laying the ground for regime change in Tehran.
Follow latest: Israel warns ‘Tehran will burn’ if it continues
Because, hours after his country launched its first, surprise attack, the message from Benjamin Netanyahu couldn’t be clearer – Iranians, he said, should overthrow their “evil and oppressive regime”. He said Israel’s attack would “pave the way for you to achieve your freedom”.
On the one hand, he would say that, wouldn’t he? The Iranian government does not recognise the legitimacy of the Israeli state and has called for its destruction, while funding proxy groups that have attacked Israel – including Hamas, Lebanese Hezbollah, and the Houthis in Yemen.
But perhaps this time there is more than just wishful thinking.
Although it’s very hard to gauge the level of opposition in Iran, it seems likely the majority of the population of 90 million are at least disenchanted with the regime.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Living standards have fallen and supplies are running short. While tens of billions of dollars have been spent on a nuclear programme, electricity is being rationed and cooking gas is running low.
Priority is being given to those who are close to the regime, notably the members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a branch of the Iranian army that is fiercely loyal to the ruling regime.
The IRGC are crucial in propping up Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country’s 86-year-old supreme leader. Not only do they offer military power, but also domestic surveillance, intimidation and secret policing in order to stifle dissent.
So for any opposition to emerge, let alone flourish, the IRGC would need to be degraded – and that is precisely what Israel has done, targeting its senior leaders as well as bases.
👉Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim on your podcast app👈
The regular army, so far, has been left alone. Israel’s gamble is that a majority of the rest of the military harbour the same dislike of the IRGC as the wider population.
It was no coincidence that Netanyahu quoted the expression “woman, life, freedom”, which was a rallying call during the 2022 protests in Iran – eventually suppressed by the IRGC.
It is very hard to believe that a coherent, public opposition movement will burst into life any time soon. Iranians are well aware their regime will respond with brutality against any attempted uprising.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Instead, dissidents seem to be biding their time and waiting to see if Israel continues its assaults, and whether they can sense genuine signs that the regime is starting to struggle to maintain control. If the cracks emerge, then regime change – or at least an attempt – is possible.
Possible, but not certain. “They will do anything to stay in power, and when other uprisings have happened, they’ve been successfully suppressed,” one Middle East diplomat tells me.
“And there is no unifying leader ready to step in. Even if there is regime change, it could be a military takeover rather than a popular uprising.”
Read more:
All we know about military chiefs killed by Israel
What are Iran’s military capabilities?
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
And that leaves one final question – if Khamenei did feel his grip on power was failing, might he still have the time, desire and power to resort to final, desperate military actions? The truth is, we don’t know.
At the moment, the Middle East is a region full of unanswerable, high-risk questions.
