The Senate’s conservative hard-liners vowed to wage holy war against the “big, beautiful bill.” Now they appear to be coming to Jesus.
The recent rhetorical downshift from some of the loudest GOP critics of the pending megabill underscores the political reality for conservatives: As much as they want to rail publicly about the legislation and the need to address any number of pressing national emergencies in it, very few are willing to buck President Donald Trump on his biggest priority.
None of them are ready to cave just yet. But the White House and their GOP colleagues increasingly believe that three senators in particular — Sens. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, Mike Lee of Utah and Rick Scott of Florida — are now on track to support the bill.
Johnson, in particular, has softened his once-fierce criticism of the legislation in recent days.
“We all want to see President Trump succeed,” he said in a brief interview this week. “Everybody is trying to help. That’s why, if I seem to have been striking a more hopeful tone, it’s because I am more hopeful.”
Just a couple of weeks ago, Johnson was demanding near-unworkable levels of spending cuts and warning that the bill would drive the nation off a fiscal cliff. Then the Trump administration and members of Republican leadership went to work.
Johnson made a pitch to Trump during a recent one-on-one phone call to let him work with administration officials on his deficit reduction plan. That led to a meeting with Vice President JD Vance and Kevin Hassett, the director of the National Economic Council. A person with knowledge of the meeting, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said afterward that the White House is “optimistic that there’s a path to getting Johnson to yes.”
Trump also privately urged Johnson during a meeting with other Finance Committee Republicans last week to speak more positively about the bill. The callout came after Trump officials — and Trump himself — grew annoyed watching Johnson savage the bill on television.
His message: You should be out there selling this bill proudly, he told Johnson, according to two White House officials granted anonymity to describe the meeting — arguing that even if he doesn’t love every detail, there was plenty in the bill for Republicans to be proud of.
“When the president says, ‘Ron, you’ve been so negative, that’s just not even helpful,’ I want to be helpful,” Johnson said, acknowledging Trump’s message in the meeting and admitting he has “downplayed what is good in the bill.”
One of the White House officials summarized the approach to Johnson: “Don’t be negative to create leverage for yourself,” the person said. “If you want to negotiate, like, we can negotiate in private. We’re all reasonable people.”
The hands-on efforts to win over Johnson are part of a larger effort to try to help the fiscal hawks find a soft landing — and at least the semblance of some concessions that will be able to hold up as wins in the end. That’s played out in face-to-face meetings with administration officials, negotiations over pet provisions and discussions about how to continue the fight to cut budget deficits down the road.
Being able to win over their deficit hawks would be a huge boon to Majority Leader John Thune, who has acknowledged that he’s got one hard “no” vote in Sen. Rand Paul, who firmly opposes the bill’s debt-ceiling hike. Thune can only afford to lose three GOP senators, with Vance breaking a tie.
That has given the fiscal hawks leverage, since the GOP leaders can’t afford to lose all of them, and that’s on top of the other potential headaches they have to navigate elsewhere in the conference.
To hear the fiscal hawks tell it, they are sounding a more positive note about their ability to support the bill because the administration is starting to take their demands seriously. To help appease their holdouts, GOP leaders have tried to scrounge up additional savings beyond what is included in the House bill.
“I believe we’ll get a deal done. I’m doing everything I can to represent my state,” Scott said in a brief interview.
GOP leaders are working to assuage Lee by tucking one of his top priorities into the bill. The deregulatory proposal, known as the REINS Act, was initially expected to run afoul of Senate rules for the party-line reconciliation process, but leaders have been working to try to find a version that could pass muster.
House conservatives, meanwhile, have grown increasingly worried that the Senate, with the blessing of their fiscal-hawk allies, will send back a bill that waters down some of their hard-fought victories. The House Freedom Caucus has laid out public demands, while its members have met privately with Lee, Scott and Johnson to strategize about additional spending reductions and maintaining their policy wins.
The Senate hard-liners aren’t ready to concede just yet. Senate Budget Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) has promised Johnson he will advance a second reconciliation bill, giving conservatives another chance to enact cuts. But Johnson said that wouldn’t be enough to get him on board. Instead he wants a “forcing mechanism” to maintain a longer-term push to return to 2019 spending levels. He’s letting the White House brainstorm other ideas and described himself as “reasonably flexible.”
Lee said in a statement he’s “been working with my colleagues and the White House to make the Big Bill Beautiful.” But added: “It’s not where it needs to be yet.”
“We need to sell federal land to help fix the housing crisis, terminate benefits that flow to illegals, end the Green New Scam, and get rid of the Medicaid provider tax. I want to see this effort cross the finish line, but we need to do more,” he added.
Even as they continue to push, their colleagues see the signs of late softening — and aren’t surprised whatsoever. “They’ll fold,” said a GOP colleague who was granted anonymity to speak candidly.
Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) said that Republicans have “made progress” with Johnson and “I wouldn’t count him out.” And two others, Sens. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) and John Kennedy (R-La.), said they expect Lee, Scott and Johnson to come around when the bill comes up for a final vote, even if they don’t ultimately love every provision.
“They’re very gettable,” Kennedy said. “At some point people are just going to have to decide, is this good enough?”
Rachael Bade and Meredith Lee Hill contributed reporting.
