XRP ETF approval odds slide 10% ahead of critical SEC and ETF deadlines next week

Approaching deadlines for spot XRP ETF applications from major asset managers, including Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, and Bitwise, are fueling speculation over potential SEC approval, especially in light of Ripple’s proposed legal settlement with the regulator, which still awaits final court approval.

On the prediction platform Polymarket, odds for an approval by 2025 surged to as high as 98% in early June, though over the past week, odds have dropped to 88%.

The prospect still faces regulatory hurdles, but the proposed resolution of the SEC lawsuit against Ripple has removed one of the biggest legal overhangs, pending judicial sign-off.

SEC vs XRP: final stretch

The legal uncertainty surrounding XRP largely stemmed from the SEC’s multi-year litigation alleging that XRP constituted an unregistered security.

While Ripple and the SEC announced a $50 million settlement in March, the agreement faced a temporary hurdle in May when Judge Analisa Torres rejected a joint motion to amend the final judgment. The motion was deemed procedurally improper under Rule 60.

The parties then pursued a limited remand through the Second Circuit and paused their appeals for 60 days. As of mid-June, no court order has finalized the settlement, and the case remains technically open.

As part of the agreement, both parties signaled their intent to drop appeals, but these steps are still in process and contingent on further court actions. Judge Torres’s 2023 ruling, which held that programmatic and other public XRP distributions were not securities transactions, remains a key reference point, though she also found that certain institutional sales did violate securities laws.

The SEC is required to submit a procedural status report to the U.S. Court of Appeals by June 16. However, this update is unlikely to determine the outcome of the case and does not confirm settlement approval.

Regardless, years of legal frustration have cultivated anxiety among XRP analysts, leading to predictions of extreme price movements contingent on an ETF approval.

Some traders speculate that a successful ETF approval could catalyze a parabolic rally for XRP, with price targets ranging between $20 and $27. However, such projections are highly speculative and dependent on market sentiment. Analysts caution that, similar to the post-ETF approval performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum, a sharp correction could follow initial price euphoria.

This “approve and crash” theory draws parallels to the “buy the rumor, sell the news” market behavior observed following the U.S. launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the Ethereum Merge event. The asset’s known volatility and strong retail holder base could amplify such a price swing.

XRP institutional foundation

While the ETF outcome remains uncertain, XRP is concurrently building a foundation of institutional use. On May 19, CME Group launched XRP futures contracts, providing a regulated venue for derivatives trading.

Additionally, several corporations, including Webus, VivoPower, and Wellgistics, have announced plans to allocate over $450 million in total to their corporate treasuries for use in payments and reserves.

The XRP Ledger is also being utilized for real-world asset tokenization, exemplified by Guggenheim Treasury Services issuing Digital Commercial Paper on the platform.

These developments point toward a growing institutional relevance for the asset that is independent of any immediate ETF outcome.

The SEC faces a new decision deadline on June 17 for Franklin Templeton’s spot XRP ETF application.

XRP ETF and SEC Milestones

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