Everyone at NATO knows about battles.
Sometimes you come out on top and sometimes you have to know when you’re beaten. And here, it’s the Americans who are wearing the biggest smiles.
It has long been a mantra of President Trump that European nations should spend a lot more money on defence.
During his first term, when he seemed to be deriding NATO on a regular basis, he amplified a debate that had long rumbled; now it feels like it’s coming to a resolution.
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Certainly there was a bounce in the step of US defence secretary Pete Hegseth when we spoke.
“We all need increased capabilities and we all need to spend more,” he said.
“Thank you to President Trump for reviving this alliance. It was an alliance that was sleepwalking to irrelevance and President Trump, in his first term, said you need to step up and spend more. And he has in this term done the same.”
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“What I saw in there”, gesturing to the meeting rooms where all the ministers had met, “were countries prepared to step up to push the limits of what they can do. That’s a good thing. That’s friends helping friends.”
Poland gears up
Mr Hegseth came into this meeting with one big demand – for NATO allies to bump up their defence spending to a total of 5% of GDP – more than any of them are spending at the moment.
Of that, he believes that at least 3.5% should be going towards core defence spending – soldiers, planes, guns and so on – while a further 1.5% could be spent on other “defence-related” elements – infrastructure, espionage, civil defence.
Pot one is clear. Pot two is vague – nobody seems quite sure what counts as “defence-related”. Climate change resilience, for instance, has been suggested by some countries. That one will need clearing up.
But even the 3.5% demand is a huge one.
Third of worldwide defence spending by US
According to the latest data I’ve seen, only one NATO member presently spends above that target – and no, that isn’t America.
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It’s Poland, which has ramped up military spending ever since neighbouring Ukraine was invaded. Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia have all done the same, nervously looking towards Russia.
The United States sits at 3.4% of GDP. But that’s 3.4% of a very big number, so it equates to an awful lot of spending.
To put that in context, more than a third of worldwide spending on defence is carried out by America.
Look at the top 10 nations in the world for defence spending, and America is top by a mile. It spends more than the other nine countries on that list put together.
What’s more, the vast majority of that money goes to American companies, and a great deal of it is shared among a relatively small number of those companies.
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Increased military spending may well be good for global security, but until such time as Europe expands its own defence industry, it’s also excellent news for the American economy.
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Mark Rutte, the NATO secretary general, admitted that it was a huge challenge, but said that he would not accept countries simply kicking the financial can down the street. Countries will be monitored constantly to ensure they are making annual progress towards the 5% target.
A finishing line hasn’t been established yet, but it’s probably going to be 10 years from now. Still, Rutte said he didn’t want “hockey sticks” – the statistical model where things stay flat for a long time, and the big rise only comes at the end.
