Bitcoin has officially entered uncharted territory, breaking above its all-time high and reaching an impressive $111,888 earlier today. This marks the beginning of a new price discovery phase, igniting excitement across the market. While bulls remain firmly in control, sentiment is far from euphoric. Many analysts are urging caution, expecting a possible retrace as the market digests this breakout.
Top analyst Axel Adler shared timely insights, emphasizing that the sustainability of this rally hinges on the behavior of short-term holders (STH) and ETF speculators. According to Adler, the current STH MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio has not yet crossed the “green” threshold of one standard deviation (+1 STDV), a level historically associated with “super rallies.”
As of now, the data suggests that there is still room for further upside. However, the risk appetite of STH and ETF participants will likely determine whether Bitcoin continues climbing or pauses for a correction. With market sentiment cautious but optimistic, all eyes are on whether this breakout can transform into a sustained, high-momentum bull phase.
Bitcoin STH Risk Appetite And ETF Flows May Dictate Next Move
Bitcoin is showing remarkable strength as it pushes higher despite rising macroeconomic uncertainty. U.S. stocks fell sharply yesterday, rattled by surging Treasury yields that signaled tighter financial conditions ahead. Yet, in contrast, BTC has continued its climb, reaffirming its growing role as a hedge against traditional market volatility. Still, breaking above the $115,000 level remains critical. Without that breakout, Bitcoin risks losing momentum and facing a significant correction.
Adler highlights that this rally hinges on the risk appetite of short-term holders (STH) and ETF-driven speculators. According to Adler, the current STH MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) metric has not yet crossed the “green” threshold of one standard deviation (+1 STDV). Historically, this level has marked the beginning of a “super rally,” a phase in which prices accelerate rapidly until STH holders begin profit-taking.
In previous rallies of this cycle, Bitcoin surged an average of 46% above the +1 STDV line. Based on today’s data, this would project a potential high near $154,000. However, Adler warns that the current late-stage environment could curb gains. He anticipates selling to begin around $126,000, particularly from ETF buyers who entered around the $84,000 mark.
While STH holders may be willing to ride out higher prices, ETF speculators could become the pressure point. Their exits may trigger the next correction, reinforcing the need for strong buying volume to sustain the breakout. As Bitcoin navigates new highs, market behavior will likely hinge on how both groups react to mounting gains.
Technical Details: BTC Enters Price Discovery
Bitcoin has officially entered price discovery after breaking above its previous all-time high, reaching $111,888 earlier today. The chart shows a strong bullish structure supported by rising volume and higher lows since the breakout above $100,000 in early May. The momentum has been consistent, with BTC holding well above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $93,413 and the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $89,106, which now act as strong macro supports.
After clearing the $103,600 resistance zone cleanly, Bitcoin continued to climb with minimal retracement, signaling strong buying interest and low overhead supply. The absence of major resistance in this new range increases the likelihood of further upside. However, RSI-based overheating or funding rate spikes could soon act as short-term obstacles.
Despite the bullish momentum, it’s important to watch for any bearish divergences or signs of exhaustion near the psychological $115,000 level. A close above that mark with strong volume would likely extend the rally into the $120,000–$130,000 range. On the downside, the $103,600 and $100,000 levels now serve as crucial support zones. If bulls can maintain this structure and volume remains favorable, the breakout could lead to a sustained leg up in this cycle.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
