Bitcoin is still trading around the $103,000 mark, although the upward momentum it started in May has exhibited a slowdown in the past seven days. Although a short-term volatility is currently playing out, the long-term outlook is undoubtedly bullish.
Some analysts are looking to long-term cycle indicators for direction. One such tool, the Golden Ratio Multiplier, which called the Bitcoin top in 2021, has resurfaced with another interesting top for the current Bitcoin cycle.
Golden Ratio Multiplier Identified 2021 Top, Now Points To New Peak
Taking to a post on social media platform X, popular crypto analyst CryptoCon highlighted the reliability of the Golden Ratio Multiplier in predicting Bitcoin’s price top in each cycle. The Golden Ratio Multiplier is a logarithmic model that incorporates Fibonacci-derived multipliers to anticipate Bitcoin’s macro trends.
Notably, this metric was among the few to accurately call the April 2021 cycle top in real time, the same as the 2017 and 2013 price tops. This cycle, the model has already flagged a significant peak in March 2024, although the crypto analyst interpreted this not as the final high but as a mid-top.
CryptoCon explained that Bitcoin’s price action has already hit Level 4 of the multiplier chart this cycle, but this isn’t the final peak. “We’ve already hit our cycle top level this cycle once, but this was for the cycle mid-top in March 2024, which means we’re bound to do it again,” he wrote.
The Level 5 band now sits around $160,000 and continues to trend upward. Drawing a parallel to past cycles, CryptoCon noted that the structure of the current cycle shows strong similarities to the 2015 to 2017 period, when Bitcoin saw a gradual build-up followed by an explosive breakout.
Based on this comparison, the current market phase is seen as equivalent to April 2017, right before Bitcoin went on a rally in the months that followed.
Golden Multiplier Ratio Suggests $160k Is Next Major Target
The chart accompanying CryptoCon’s post paints a familiar picture with the Golden Multiplier Ratio. Each band, ranging from Level 1 to Level 10, is based on a multiplier level derived from the 350-day moving average. Bitcoin has topped at various levels: Level 10 in 2011, Level 9 and 8 in 2013, Level 7 in 2017, and Level 6 in 2021. The current cycle’s peak should most likely be Level 5, but the Bitcoin price is yet to get there.
Should the market continue to respect this structure, Bitcoin could be preparing for a rally toward the Level 5 mark of $160,000 sometime later in the year, which could mark the final high of this cycle. The current range around $103,000 may well be the calm before the final breakout. “Slower buildup, then all at once,” the analyst said.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $102,971.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
