Strategy’s BTC holdings could be at risk following Technical expert Tony Severino’s revelation about Bitcoin’s current price action. The expert noted that the flagship crypto’s 200-day MA is below the average cost of the company’s BTC holdings, meaning they could still hold an unrealized loss at some point.
Strategy’s Stock At Risk With Bitcoin’s 200-Day MA Below $50,000
In an X post, Tony Severino revealed that every Bitcoin bear market touched the 200-week Moving Average. He further stated that the 200-week MA is currently at $47,000. As Severino noted, this is 30% below Strategy’s BTC cost basis. The expert added that the cost basis is only $5,000 below the most recent low set in April 2025.
Severino warned that if BTC were to make a lower low or move into a bear market, the company would likely soon be underwater on its Bitcoin holdings. Following its latest purchase of 13,390 Bitcoins, Strategy holds 568,840 BTC, which it bought for $39 billion at an average price of $69,287, well above the 200-week MA at $47,000.
Before now, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju had revealed that the only way Strategy’s Bitcoin plan could lead to bankruptcy was if the BTC price dropped to as low as $16,000. He indicated that this price decline was almost impossible, which is why he is confident that Saylor’s company won’t have to liquidate its holdings anytime soon.
However, experts like renowned economist Peter Schiff have remained critical about Strategy’s non-stop Bitcoin purchase. In his latest criticism, Schiff noted that the company’s next buy would likely put its cost average above the $70,000 mark. He remarked that this isn’t good considering how much they have borrowed to buy BTC. In line with this, the economist warned that paper losses could soon become real losses.
BTC Still Has More Legs To The Upside
Crypto analyst Titan of Crypto has indicated that Bitcoin has more legs to the upside in this market cycle, which is a positive for Strategy’s BTC holdings. In an X post, the analyst noted that despite BTC being near its all-time high (ATH), the monthly LMACD hasn’t crossed bearish yet. He added that the crossover has marked the top in every past cycle.
As such, Bitcoin’s 200-Week MA could also rise as the BTC price approaches a top in this market cycle. Crypto analyst CrediBULL recently predicted that the flagship crypto could still rally to as high as $150,000 or even $200,000 in this bull run. Standard Chartered has also stated that $200,000 by year-end is achievable.
At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $102,000, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
