Donald Trump’s tour of the Middle East this week has taken on a new importance after a series of surprising developments on the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and on trade between the US and China.
After a diplomatic flurry over the weekend, it seemed like steps were being taken towards some form of possible peace in both Gaza and Ukraine.
Alongside that, Washington claimed it had made “substantial progress” in trade talks with China, with treasury secretary Scott Bessent going as far as to say a deal had been agreed to cut the US trade deficit. But there was no mention of reducing tariffs.
Mr Trump is due to travel to the Middle East later today on the first major foreign trip of his second presidency, visiting Saudi Arabia and then Qatar and the UAE.
It will coincide with a possible meeting between Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russia’s Vladimir Putin, in person in Turkey, and comes after Hamas said it would release a hostage, an Israeli soldier who holds American citizenship.
This leaves Mr Trump facing challenges on three fronts as he visits some of the richest nations in the world.
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The US president previously claimed he could end the war in Ukraine in one day – something he has not done.
On Sunday, he put pressure on Mr Zelenskyy to sit down and meet with Mr Putin in person after Moscow put forward the proposal for talks in Istanbul.
This was something the leader from Kyiv quickly agreed to and it came after European leaders threatened Mr Putin with fresh sanctions.
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Thursday could see a potential first in-person meeting between the two leaders since Moscow’s invasion began.
It could mark an extraordinary moment in the ongoing war in Ukraine, however, the countries are seemingly still a long way from actual peace.
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A trade deal or a first step?
After Mr Trump declared war on the existing global trade system in April, hitting allies and foes alike with tariffs, it left many reeling and triggered an escalation with China, which slapped Washington with reciprocal measures.
While those are still in place, the US said on Sunday that the two have agreed a deal to cut the US trade deficit.
However, despite confidence from the US side, China’s vice premier He Lifeng described the meeting as an “important first step” that created a foundation only.
No mention was made of reducing tariffs and this would do little good elsewhere where tariffs continue to add friction to previously freer global trade.
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Israeli soldier to be released
In Gaza, previous efforts to achieve a ceasefire collapsed and Israel implemented a total ban on aid going into the enclave to try to pressure Hamas back to the negotiating table.
With charities warning that the 2.3 million Palestinians in Gaza face a humanitarian crisis, the militant group has said it will release Edan Alexander, an Israeli soldier who holds US citizenship.
It comes after Israel announced it intends to occupy the entire enclave, threatening years of more war.
No exact date was given, but Hamas said it would release the 21-year-old as part of ongoing efforts to achieve a permanent ceasefire with Israel.
His expected release has been described as a “gesture of goodwill” by Steve Witkoff, Mr Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East.
The previously agreed ceasefire failed over disagreement on the transition from phase one onwards.
While Hamas wanted to progress to phase two, where work would be done towards Israel’s permanent withdrawal from Gaza and peace, Israel wanted to extend phase one and release more hostages.
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Israel agreed to a framework proposed by the US that would see Hamas release half of the remaining hostages, its main bargaining chip, in exchange for a ceasefire extension and a promise to negotiate a lasting truce.
While Mr Alexander is only one hostage, it will be seen as a promising sign that Hamas returned to the negotiating table and Mr Trump will be in Qatar, the key mediator in so-far unsuccessful peace efforts.
