VE Day with a packed diary was perhaps not the moment the prime minister would have chosen to announce he’d sealed a trade deal with Donald Trump.
From the Trump news bomb dropped in the middle of the night about a deal being announced “with a big and highly respected country”, to the hastily convened Oval Office-Jaguar Land Rover conference call, it was a substantial moment – months in the making – that had the feel of being announced on the hop.
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“Dealing with the Americans is always hectic,” observed one Whitehall official wryly.
That the Trump call to seal the deal came right in the middle of Keir Starmer’s beloved Arsenal playing PSG in the Champions League semi-final on Wednesday night is all the proof you need to know it was unplanned.
But as one senior government figure put it: “When it’s time to close a deal, it gets closed. We weren’t going to wait for a grid slot to make sure British workers could be assured.”
The deal was apparently done and dusted last Thursday, with London waiting on Washington to sign it off.
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It may be a win, but it’s still pretty thin
For both leaders, this deal can be claimed as a win. Trump needed an off-ramp after his announcement of sweeping global tariffs crashed the confidence of the markets – and many US voters – in him. The White House is now working on a series of bilateral trade deals around the world.
Starmer got to be first in line, and agree a deal that certainly helps those workers in the Jaguar Land Rover factory he visited today, which had paused the production line for US car exports after Trump announced a 25% tariff.
It goes without saying getting a deal – with those tariffs dropped to 10% – is a win for those workers and a prime minister who made the point that his approach with Trump – cool head, negotiate behind closed doors – paid off.
But it is also true that, despite Trump’s claims it’s “full and comprehensive”, this deal is pretty thin.
As one government insider put it to me, Number 10 went for a fast and narrow deal to ameliorate the worst of Trump’s tariffs for the car, steel, and aluminium sectors.
But we are still worse off than when Trump came into the White House. The 10% flat tariffs still stand, and there are so many unknowns on where else he might move.
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There could be (more) tariffs ahead
Only this weekend he was talking about slapping tariffs on films made outside the US, which would be a body blow to the UK’s creative industries. And there was plenty of uncertainty in this deal around other sectors, such as the pharma industry.
On both, the PM said the UK would get “preferential treatment” should the US impose tariffs. But what does that really look like, and will Trump follow through?
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On big tech, the two countries agreed to work on a digital trade pact to deepen co-operation. But for now, the UK digital services tax, which imposes a levy of 2% on multinational tech companies – worth £800m a year – remains.
Not only is the UK still in a worse position on trade with the US than before Trump was elected, this is also not a free trade deal – and the prime minister knows it.
As he told workers on the factory floor in Solihull: “In the deal with we have done today, we can say: jobs saved, jobs won, but not job done. Because we are more ambitious for what the UK and US can do.”
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When I asked him if he was disappointed the 10% tariffs are still in place, particularly after Trump had floated the prospect of a tariff-free deal back in February, he told me: “We would like to go further in relation to tariffs.
“But I think it’s really important we’ve been able to get this deal over the line now because in that way we’ve been able to protect and save and enhance jobs right here, right now.”
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Workers at Jaguar Land Rover will no doubt be relieved that the prime minister has negotiated a deal with Trump that helps their industry and jobs. As for Starmer, he was clear the decisions he takes, he takes “on behalf of working people across this country”.
He is right to claim the win. It has been hard fought, and it has taken huge effort right across Whitehall.
The bigger challenge for Starmer is how he translates those wins on the world stage – be it the India trade deal or the US one – into gains among voters on the doorstep who are losing faith in his government.
