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The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady this week, with a 95% chance of no changes, as it adopts a cautious “wait and see” approach. Despite a slow economy in Q1, inflation remains slightly above the 2% target, while unemployment stays low, giving the Fed more time to assess market conditions. The FED interest rate decision is crucial, as the Trump tariffs and ongoing US-China trade talks could influence future actions.
Trump Tariffs and Trade Optimism
The latest Trump tariffs and trade discussions between the US and China are bringing renewed optimism to the market. Credit Suisse analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya notes that improving trade relations could boost risk assets and revive investor confidence in the US dollar. While the dollar didn’t surge during the peak of the tariff war, a shift in sentiment could drive its near-term performance.
FED to Stay in “Wait and See” Mode
The Federal Reserve remains focused on data, with many expecting no immediate rate cuts. As the Fed weighs Trump’s tariffs and a $4 trillion budget plan, it will likely hold off on making any drastic decisions. Although inflation is still above 2%, the FED interest rate decision will depend on the ongoing trade talks and economic trends.
Dollar Could Rebound Amid Trade Optimism
Trade optimism surrounding Trump tariffs and negotiations could potentially lift the dollar, shifting from a safe-haven narrative to broader confidence. Ozkardeskaya believes that this shift could reignite demand for the US dollar, marking a key development as the FED interest rate decision looms.
FED Interest Rate Decision
With little indication of drastic shifts in the economy, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to keep messaging minimal, even as President Trump pushes for rate cuts. Analysts predict that the Fed may only cut rates if the labor market weakens significantly.
