British politics is changing after a night that saw a sensational, record-breaking victory by Nigel Farage in the North West.
That’s the conclusion of a nail-biting night that delivered more drama than expected and gives strong indications – though not yet certainty – about how politics is being reshaped for a new era, which means greater political unpredictability and challenges for the main parties in highly uncomfortable ways.
The significance of this morning’s results will be argued over for years to come.
Reform beats Labour by six votes; follow Politics latest
Hours after counting began, there are two big themes for definite.
The first is that Reform UK proved they continue to evolve into a mature and potentially lethal political force.
Across the country they are now winning votes in Labour areas as well as Conservative, and they have run both parties close in a number of key contests.
They achieved vote shares of 40% or more, twice their share at the General Election. They even won a seat from the Liberal Democrats.
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Mayoral election results as they come in
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The second is that while Labour was able to deliver a number of physiologically important mayoral wins – often by the smallest of margins – they need to go up a gear to fight.
Labour’s vote declined but did not collapse and they are still able to get “their people” to the ballot box from Bristol to Tyneside.
But in the most important battle of all – the North West seat of Runcorn and Helsby – they could not, and Reform UK pulled off a stunning triumph, taking the 49th-safest Labour seat in the country.
Nigel Farage and the team had poured huge amounts of time and resource into the seat, with multiple visits and the chairman Zia Yusuf on the ground to direct operations. It paid off.
By contrast, Sir Keir Starmer did not turn up once. Number 10 will be asking itself today whether a prime ministerial visit could have been worth those six precious votes.
It is true to say that politics has become so unpredictable because neither party knew what was about to happen.
The evening started with Reform UK hinting at victory, but by 2am Labour was quietly confident. By 3am, it had turned out neither really knew, and a full recount was launched after Reform UK was four votes ahead. After the recount, Labour had lost by six.
This is the moment Reform UK proved itself a protest party for Labour voters as well as Tories.
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Significance for Reform is immense
The significance is immense. At last year’s general election, there were over 150 seats where the Tories lost because Reform UK got more votes than the margin by which the Conservatives lost to the winner.
Now this suggests that Reform UK has the capacity to mete out the same damage to Labour and puts the two traditional parties on notice that they face a threat.
Labour has already shown itself willing to bend because of the threat of Reform UK, slashing the aid budget to pay for more military spending and slashing Whitehall with a promise of more to come.
The question is, how much further can Labour go in this direction? In some of the council by-elections there was already evidence of bleeding to the Greens – a sign that more left-leaning one-time Labour supporters are deserting the party because they think it no longer represents them.
What course does this Number 10 chart now? A slew of announcements on immigration and slashing red tape – and risk a greater schism on the left – or end up in the mushy middle and pleasing no one? The choices are unappetising.
Then there is the challenge for the Tories.
For those hoping for a non-aggression pact on the right, today’s results suggest that Reform UK can credibly question whether they are a party of the right, given their success in Labour areas.
This is a complicating factor. Where does the logic heard in the leaked recording by Robert Jenrick – brought up by Nigel Farage this morning – take us now?
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There will be those who point to UKIP’s success in the early 2010s and lack of impact in the 2015 election, and say that there is no certainty that Reform UK will fly.
Of course, there is a chance they may fade, particularly if their infighting gets worse.
But UKIP never achieved a breakthrough on the left like Reform UK has done to date, and its impact may never actually be in the seats that it wins.
Arguably in that early 2010 period, Farage and UKIP left an even bigger legacy without ever holding power: a Brexit referendum which he went on to win.
There are now lots of paths for what Farage has started to change Britain. We do not know where this ends.
