When Canada goes to the polls, it might be the second election Donald Trump wins in six months.
The US president has transformed Canada’s political landscape, and the “Trump effect” looks like it will be the difference between winners and losers.
Tariffs, and his threat to annexe the country as the 51st state, have provoked a surge in Canadian nationalism, and it’s made a favourite of the candidate styled anti-Trump.
Step forward, Mark Carney: Former Governor of the Bank of England, now Canadian Prime Minister.
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His ruling Liberal party had been written off as an electoral contender. Canadians had turned their back on the party after a decade in power under Carney’s predecessor, Justin Trudeau.
The opposition Conservative Party, under the effective leadership of Pierre Poilievre, grew to a 25-point lead in the polls on the promise of change on the economy, crime and a chronic housing crisis.
However, his conservative politics are more aligned with the neighbour in the White House and, in Canada right now, it’s not a good look.
Read more: Everything you need to know about the election
In a stunning reversal of fortune, the Conservative Party’s lead vanished within weeks, as Canadians turned to Carney as the choice to take on Trump.
If he wins, the swing from Conservative to Liberal will be the biggest swing in the polls in recent democratic history.
Carney, 60, is the former governor of the Bank of Canada, as well as England. He replaced Mr Trudeau as Liberal Party leader and Canadian prime minister after his predecessor stepped down last month.
Polls indicate that Canadians see Carney as a stronger choice to negotiate with Donald Trump. He is a veteran of economic turmoil, having dealt with the 2008 financial crisis and Brexit.
At a weekend news conference, Sky News asked the Canadian prime minister what lessons he’d learned from Brexit that could be applied to his dealings with Donald Trump.
He replied: “The lessons of Brexit are beginning to be applied. When you break off, or substantially rupture, trading relationships with your major trading partners, including the most important trading partner of the United States, you end up with slower growth, higher inflation, higher interest rates, volatility, weaker currency, a weaker economy.
“We’re in the early stages of that in the United States, and that’s one of the important things here. With respect to influencing the president, with respect to the dynamics of a negotiation, America’s going to get weaker as time goes on, we’re going to get stronger.”
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Canada’s vote is as close as it gets to a single-issue election.
Carney’s position as favourite is reinforced consistently by the opinion polls, although the gap narrowed as election day approached.
It could yet be tight.
