On the higher time frame, Bitcoin appears to still be in a bearish market with the asset recording a 21.7% decrease away from its all-time high (ATH) above $109,000 recorded in January.
However, when slightly zoomed in, it is seen that the asset is seeing a gradual and steady rebound surging 6.8% in the past week to bring its asset closer to the psychological $90,000 mark with a current trading price hovering above $85,000.
The latest analysis from CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan offers context for this cautious optimism. In a post titled “Why does this cycle feel so boring?”, Dan explained that, unlike previous bull cycles that featured fast-paced rallies and surging interest from short-term participants, the current cycle appears subdued.
Why The Current Cycle Is Different
One major indicator supporting Dan’s observation is the notably lower percentage of Bitcoin held for short durations (1 week to 1 month), reflecting minimal engagement from newer market entrants. Dan attributes this behavioral shift to two primary structural changes. First is the macroeconomic environment.
In contrast to the aggressive liquidity injections and near-zero interest rates of the 2020–2021 period, the current market faces tight liquidity and high interest rates, reducing the pace and scale of capital inflows. Second is the transition in market leadership from retail traders to institutional investors.
The approval and growing adoption of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have transformed the nature of capital movement into the space, making price movements more measured and incremental.
As a result, the market’s development is more cautious, lacking the euphoria typically seen in previous cycles. Dan emphasized that while some on-chain metrics may suggest a cycle top, the current structure could instead be pointing to a more extended and gradual market evolution.
He suggested that long-term patience, rather than short-term speculation, may yield better outcomes under these conditions, noting:
In times like this, what matters most isn’t chasing quick pumps— It’s understanding the slower structure and having the patience to stay with it.
Bitcoin On-Chain Metrics Signal Strength Despite Unusual Cycle
Supporting this longer-term perspective, another CryptoQuant analyst elcryptotavo noted that a key on-chain metric remains strong. According to his analysis, over 70% of the Bitcoin supply remains in profit—a level historically associated with price stability.
This metric tracks the percentage of circulating BTC with a cost basis below the current market price. A supply-in-profit ratio that remains elevated, particularly above the 70% mark, has often served as a foundation for further upward momentum.
Elcryptotavo added that the next target is to push this metric back toward the 80% level, which would reinforce bullish momentum and possibly sustain the current upward trend.
If this threshold is achieved alongside improving macro conditions and continued ETF inflows, Bitcoin could see renewed strength even in the absence of speculative enthusiasm.
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
