Bitcoin may have a greater probability of outlasting the dollar over the next three decades, according to Jeff Park, Head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise Invest, who described the prospect as “an actual truth to grapple with.” He said,
“Higher chance bitcoin survives over the dollar in our lifetime after today.”
The remark followed a liquidity rupture in the bond market overnight, where a sharp dislocation in the SOFR-Fed Funds spread signaled deepening stress in short-term funding.
The spread, shown on a Bloomberg terminal chart Park labeled “the most important,” fell to -3.46 basis points. The SOFR-forward versus Fed Funds curve is often used to gauge liquidity stress. A negative reading points to dislocations in short-term collateral demand, often appearing ahead of broader volatility.
Park’s interpretation comes as multiple metrics align: hedge funds appear to be deleveraging, Treasury yields are rising during equity selloffs, and traditional “risk-off” assets are being sold en masse.
Spencer Hakimian, Founder of Tolou Capital Management, noted a rapid breakdown in the 10-year yield market late Monday, describing a liquidation spiral. The basis trade, a long-standing arbitrage between Treasury futures and bonds, may have unraveled due to leverage stress, driving forced sales in U.S. government debt.
Luke Broyles from TheBTCAdviser added that the absence of demand for bonds amid equity turmoil signals eroding faith in traditional safe havens. Despite a recent 30% Bitcoin drawdown, Broyles maintains that Treasuries are still collapsing relative to BTC.
Trade instability has compounded structural fragility. President Trump’s tariffs now target over 60 nations, including China, the EU, and Japan, with some levies exceeding 100%.
China’s retaliation, coupled with rare earth export curbs, has disrupted global supply chains. Broyles, referencing these macro shifts, concluded that he has not found a scenario where Bitcoin fails to outperform both equities and bonds.
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