Russia is the glaring omission from Donald Trump’s tariffs list. Along with Cuba, Belarus and North Korea, it has been spared the sweeping measures, with America’s foes apparently treated better than many of its friends.
The explanation given by White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt to the US outlet Axios was that existing sanctions “preclude any meaningful trade” with Russia.
But the numbers don’t quite back that up.
It’s certainly true that US-Russia trade isn’t what it was. The war in Ukraine has seen it plummet from $35bn (£26.6bn) in 2021 to $3.5bn (£2.6bn) in 2024.
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But last year’s figure was still higher than Washington’s trade volume with Kyiv ($2.9bn, £2.2bn), and that didn’t stop Ukraine from being slapped with 10% levies.
It’s also considerably more than what the US traded with the likes of Brunei ($366m, £278m) and Mauritius ($282.5m, £214.9m) – another two nations which didn’t escape the punitive measures.
What’s more, from Donald Trump’s point of view, the vast majority of US-Russia trade is flowing in the wrong direction, i.e. into America. Of that, $3.5bn (£2.6bn) in 2024, $3bn (£2.2bn) were Russian imports, like fertiliser and aluminium, giving a deficit that’s much worse (proportionally speaking) than several of those on the naughty list.
So what’s behind Russia’s exemption?
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Many say it smacks of further favouritism towards the Kremlin.
“I hope the American people get an explanation for this. I find it outrageous,” Michael McFaul, a former US ambassador to Russia, wrote on X.
Donald Trump has been lambasted by critics for not being tough enough on Vladimir Putin as he pushes for a peace deal in Ukraine.
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He did recently threaten to impose secondary sanctions on Russian oil if Moscow blocked a ceasefire, but this latest softball makes those threats sound increasingly hollow.
His tariff announcement also coincided with a visit to Washington by Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev, who is the highest-ranking Russian official to travel to the US on state business since Moscow’s invasion.
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The former Goldman Sachs banker, who is head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, is meeting US officials, including Steve Witkoff. Was the timing of his trip a coincidence? Or a reminder to Team Trump of what’s at stake?
Moscow has made it abundantly clear to Washington that there are lucrative deals to be done should relations continue to thaw. It’s not hard to see how new levies could derail that.
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There is an alternative view – that it’s all part of Donald Trump’s famous negotiating strategy. Hold something back to use with greater effect down the line.
“One of the reasons why Russia is not on Trump’s tariff list yesterday is that tariffs should be left as a tool for forcing Russia to peace,” Alexander Baunov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, wrote on Telegram.
“If they are introduced now, what will they threaten in a week?”
Well, there’s an answer to that – more sanctions.
For now, though, it seems the US is content to cosy up to the Kremlin rather than coerce it. The question is, who is calling the shots?
