Donald Trump flourished his list of tariffs like a gameshow host in the White House Rose Garden on Wednesday – but there were no winners from the president’s made-for-TV show of economic strength.
The price was wrong for everyone and there is jeopardy for all, the US included.
From Asian nations in the engine room of global consumer manufacturing, facing tariffs above 40%, to the UK, handed the base rate of 10% alongside a host of nations including a group of uninhabited Antarctic islands, the terms of trade have fundamentally changed.
Trump tariffs latest: US stock markets tumble
The question now is what impact the tariffs will have locally, regionally and globally; and what nations should do in response.
The penguins of the Heard and McDonald Islands may be able to move on with a shrug, but not so Britain, where months of diplomatic effort concentrated on the Trump regime has delivered only the knowledge that it could have been worse.
The impact is hard to assess definitively, not least because nothing quite like this has ever happened in the era of trade liberation.
Mr Trump has stuck a spoke in the wheel of the global consensus, that ever-freer trade is good for everyone.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
The Office for Budget Responsibility has hazarded a guess that a trade war could wipe 1% off UK GDP, worth around £33bn. What is clear is that the impact will be diverse and multi-level.
The direct impact will be felt hardest by the largest goods exporters. Car manufacturers face a huge blow, with 25% tariffs on the luxury vehicles Britain still does well adding a cost to US consumers, who account for 18% of the sector’s exports, worth around £8bn.
The pharmaceutical industry has much to lose too, though exports worth almost £9bn in 2023 appeared to have a stay of execution thanks to a clause in Trump’s executive order.
For the manufacturing industry, the tariffs will be “devastating”, according to the trade body Make UK, with second-round effects almost as damaging as the 10% notionally paid by US consumers.
Read more:
World leaders react to Trump’s announcement
Do Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ numbers add up?
The UK may have left the EU but British industry still does a huge amount of business feeding supply chains for European products now subject to a 20% levy.
Anyone toasting a “Brexit benefit” from the EU’s misfortune still fails to understand the interconnectedness of our commercial relations.
Add the general cooling of the global economy caused by the richest nation on Earth’s demand to be made wealthier still, and it is a grim outlook.
What is to be done?
Be the first to get Breaking News
Install the Sky News app for free
All of which begs the second question, what to do?
The UK’s mantra has been to remain pragmatic and calm in response, while continuing to seek an “economic agreement” with the US that includes an easing of tariffs.
Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds showed a little mettle in Parliament, and a slight hardening of the UK line, by announcing a consultation with businesses over potential retaliatory tariffs.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Some sectors would like to see a muscular response, with the steel industry anxious that, in the event of a global trade war, a neutral UK would become a target for the “dumping” of cheap steel from exporters priced out of the US and EU.
Sectoral specifics aside, the truth is that the UK has limited ammunition in a trade war with the US. We buy around £60bn of goods, with machinery, fuels and chemicals, alongside Harley Davidson motorbikes and bottles of Jack Daniel’s, but the bulk of our trade is in services, professional skills flowing west and big tech coming the other way.
The digital services tax, currently extracting around £800m a year from US tech companies, is one chip Britain has to play in negotiations.
Some might call that a small price to pay to support the car industry, while others would see capitulation to social media giants and their billionaire backers.
Follow our channel and never miss an update.
As a senior cabinet minister put it shortly before Mr Trump’s election: “As a small nation outside a major trading bloc, getting involved in a trade war does not make a lot of sense.”
It was sound logic then and now. Unless the host of Trump Tariffs changes his tune, damage limitation may be the only prize on offer.
