President Donald Trump’s unexpected decision to withdraw Rep. Elise Stefanik’s U.N. nomination and keep her in the House is exposing fresh electoral fears for the GOP — and creating some chaos on Capitol Hill.
Trump’s not alone in believing that the New York special election to replace Stefanik could have been a real challenge, even though she carried the district by 24 points last year.
Trump’s move is the clearest sign yet that the political environment has become so challenging for Republicans that they don’t want to take a risk even in a safe, red seat. At stake is an already-thin GOP margin of control in the House. Republicans have been anxious about the special election to fill national security adviser Mike Waltz’s Florida seat next week.
“Can they defend her seat? Absolutely,” said Charlie Harper, who was a top aide to former Rep. Karen Handel in her successful 2017 run in a special election in Georgia. “But why do you do that right now?”
Republican lawmakers appeared to be caught off guard that Trump only now decided to be mindful of the thin House majority, months after first being warned about the perils of plucking out members.
“A little late to the game,” one House Republican said.
One senior GOP aide said that the last few days likely looked brutal for Trump, with House and Senate Republicans at odds over how to start moving his legislative agenda and the Florida special election requiring increasing GOP resources. Florida Republican Rep. Kat Cammack also announced this week that she’s pregnant and due in August — another factor that could shrink the House GOP margin for a while with Speaker Mike Johnson dead-set against allowing proxy voting for new parents.
“It probably looked very bad all at once,” the person said.
Stefanik said in a Fox News interview Thursday night that her move is intended to help House Republicans pass Trump’s legislative agenda.
“It really came to a culmination today, but it was a combination of the New York corruption that we are seeing under [Gov.] Kathy Hochul, special elections and the House margin,” she said. “And look, I’ve been in the House. It’s tough to have to count these votes every day.”
What’s next? Some big questions loom over how Stefanik will return to the House. Johnson says that Stefanik, previously the Republican conference chair, is invited “to return to the leadership table immediately.” But Michigan Rep. Lisa McClain has been serving in Stefanik’s old leadership post since January and plans to stay. In addition, the administration has placed staff that Stefanik recruited from her congressional office to serve in the State Department’s UN office.
Asked what her leadership position would be, Stefanik said on Fox she will “continue speaking out,” without elaborating further.
What else we’re watching
- Proxy voting fight: House GOP leaders are racing to stop a discharge petition from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna that would allow new parents to vote by proxy. Under House rules, Luna’s measure can be called up early next week unless GOP leaders find a way to intervene.
- Shaky budget plans: Majority Leader Steve Scalise declined to commit that the House would finalize a unified budget blueprint for Trump’s legislative agenda before the two-week Easter recess. Scalise said in a brief interview that any changes the Senate might make to the budget resolution the House approved last month could potentially delay a vote.
- Next week on the Hill: The House will consider a bill that would require proof of identification for voting and another bill that would rein in lower-court judges’ ability to issue far-reaching injunctions. The Senate will continue moving through Trump’s nominees, including Matthew Whitaker for ambassador to NATO. Senate Democrats plan to force a vote as soon as Tuesday on Trump’s Canada tariffs.
Andrew Howard, Ally Mutnick, Ben Jacobs, Brakkton Booker and Meredith Lee Hill contributed reporting.
