Bernstein believes Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, could amass more than 1 million Bitcoin (BTC) by 2033 in a bullish market cycle, Benzinga reported on March 26, citing a research note.
The projection issued by Bernstein analysts, outlines two vastly different paths for the company depending on macroeconomic conditions and Bitcoin’s long-term price trajectory.
Bull vs. bear scenario
In the optimistic scenario, Strategy would expand its holdings from the current 506,137 BTC to 1,013,000 BTC — approximately 5.8% of Bitcoin’s current circulating supply — assuming Bitcoin climbs to $200,000 by late 2025, $500,000 by 2029, and hits $1 million by 2033.
To fund that level of accumulation, Strategy would likely rely on continued access to capital markets, potentially increasing its total debt tenfold to $100 billion while raising $84 billion in equity.
The analysts emphasized that this trajectory hinges on low interest rates and strong investor demand.
In contrast, the bear case suggests a more constrained future. If Bitcoin reaches a local peak in 2025 and then enters a prolonged downturn, Strategy’s BTC holdings may level off near 514,800 BTC — just 2.6% of supply.
This would force the firm to halt further acquisitions and possibly liquidate part of its treasury to manage debt and dividends. Under this base-case model, debt would rise to $51 billion.
Outperform rating maintained
Despite the risk, Bernstein reaffirmed an “outperform” rating on Strategy and set a $600 price target — representing a 75% upside from current levels
The firm’s valuation model applies a 2x EV/sales multiple on the software segment and a 55% premium on its Bitcoin reserves, a figure in line with its average market premium since pivoting to BTC.
Strategy’s latest purchase — 6,911 BTC for $584.1 million between March 17 and March 23 — further entrenched its commitment to Bitcoin, lifting its total holdings beyond the 500,000 BTC mark.
The company now owns more BTC than any other publicly traded entity, drawing interest from retail and institutional investors alike.
Bernstein’s analysis signals continued institutional interest in Strategy’s leveraged exposure to Bitcoin. The firm’s approach remains a defining example of how corporate balance sheets are being restructured around Bitcoin.
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