Polymarket, the leading decentralized crypto prediction platform, faces backlash after resolving a politically charged market that directly conflicts with real-world developments.
On March 25, Polymarket finalized a $7 million market that asked whether US President Donald Trump would secure a rare earth minerals agreement with Ukraine by the end of March.
Despite no such deal being confirmed, the platform resolved the market in favor of the claim, causing a backlash among users.
The outcome raised serious concerns about the integrity of its Oracle system and the risks of token-based governance.
What happened?
Available reports suggest that the flawed resolution stemmed from the manipulation of Polymarket’s oracle partner, UMA Protocol.
Wu Blockchain reported that a single whale allegedly used three wallets to cast 5 million UMA tokens—roughly 25% of the votes. This gave the individual outsized influence over the final decision.
UMA operates as an optimistic oracle. It allows token holders to vote on disputed outcomes, and those with more tokens have greater voting power.
While this approach supports decentralization, it also opens the door to manipulation—especially when voter turnout is low. This means it wouldn’t take much capital to swing results, primarily when the oracle governs larger liquidity pools.
0xngmi, DefiLlama’s pseudonymous founder, highlighted this risk, noting that 51% of UMA’s market cap stands at $63 million, which is dwarfed by Polymarket’s $120 million in total value locked.
According to 0xngmi, this imbalance exposes the system to risk, as a relatively small stake in UMA can control outcomes affecting much more significant sums.
Polymarket and UMA response
Polymarket acknowledged the issue and described the event as “unprecedented.”
The platform said its internal teams and UMA have been working around the clock to investigate and implement safeguards.
A spokesperson for the platform stated:
“This is not a part of the future we want to build: we will build up systems, monitoring, and more to make sure this doesn’t repeat itself.”
Despite calls for refunds, Polymarket clarified that the market was resolved according to protocol, and users would not be reimbursed.
UMA echoed Polymarket’s stance and confirmed both teams are reviewing the case closely. They promised future improvements to protect market integrity and rebuild user trust.
The platform added:
“We are working with Polymarket to improve the user experience for both oracle and market participants.”
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