Labour faces a major challenge from its own backbenchers ahead of an announcement to restrict some sickness and disability benefits.
The plans are likely to be opposed by those in the party who are concerned about attempts to slash the ballooning welfare bill and encourage adults back to work.
Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall is expected to set out the reforms on Tuesday, but details of where those cuts could fall is proving highly divisive within Labour.
Total welfare spending in 2023-23 was about £296bn, by the end of the decade it is forecast to reach almost £378bn.
Explainer: Where could welfare cuts be made?
The chancellor needs to find savings to meet her strict fiscal rules and Rachel Reeves has previously insisted “we do need to get a grip” on the welfare budget.
One proposal reportedly under consideration is to save around £5bn by freezing or tightening the rules around the personal independence payment (PIP).
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But Labour’s Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham, a former Labour health secretary, has “urged great caution on how changes are made” although, writing in The Times, he accepts “the benefits system needs a radical overhaul”.
“I would share concerns about changing support and eligibility to benefits while leaving the current top-down system broadly in place. It would trap too many people in poverty,” he added.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting argued on Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips that the current system is “unsustainable” and welfare reforms are needed. He also said mental health conditions are often overdiagnosed.
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PIP is a payment of up to £9,000 a year for people with long-term physical and mental health conditions.
Campaigner Steve Morris is one of those 3.6 million PIP claimants and says freezing it at the current level would make his life much harder.
“I’m deafblind. PIP makes a huge difference to my life. It enables me to, afford some of the additional costs that are associated with my disability.
“For so many disabled people benefits are a lifeline. So to hear that lifeline might be taken away or severely restricted is hugely concerning.”
Liz Kendall told The Sunday Times it was an “absolute principle” to protect welfare payments for people unable to work. “For those who absolutely cannot work, this is not about that,” she said.
But she said the number of people on PIP is set to more than double this decade, partly driven by younger people.
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Sky’s political correspondent Liz Bates said the government had been expected to announce a detailed plan over welfare spending last week.
“This particular issue of PIPs stopped that plan being announced because of the strength of backlash… from the backbenches all the way up to cabinet level.”
She added that talks were going on behind the scenes about whether the policy could be softened in some way, although it was unlikely reforms could be avoided completely ahead of the spring statement on 26 March.
“Could there be a bit of backtracking from Number 10 and from the department? This is what we’re going to find out on Tuesday. There is, of course, a lot of pressure coming from the chancellor.”
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Labour is also aiming to tackle economic inactivity – especially among those under 35 – with an increasing proportion out of work due to long-term sickness.
A recent PwC report warns “a significant proportion of working adults are close to becoming economically inactive” and ill-health “is a major driver”.
The poll of 4,000 people shows 10% of the workforce are currently actively considering leaving work, and not just their current role.
That rises to 37% of those aged 18-24, who say they have either seriously considered leaving work in the last year, or are actively considering doing so now.
While the factors are complex and vary by age, the report reflects mental health is a major concern with 42% of 18-24 year-olds citing it as the biggest reason to leave work.
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On Sunday, Ms Kendall teased one policy announcement to attract people back to work, effectively giving disabled people the right to try employment without the risk of losing their benefits.
The so-called “right to try guarantee” aims to prevent those people who receive health-related benefits from having their entitlements automatically re-assessed if they enter employment.
The Conservatives support welfare reform but claim Labour is “divided” over the issue and “cannot deliver the decisive change we need”.
Shadow work and pensions secretary Helen Whately said: “The government’s dithering and delay is costing taxpayers millions every day and failing the people who rely on the welfare system.”
