At the moment, Bitcoin trades near critical support, around $83,000, amid investor caution. The asset repeatedly tested resistance levels at the top of a historical price channel.
According to Glassnode data cited by Nic Puckrin, CEO of CoinBureau, Bitcoin supply remains notably thin between $70,000 and $80,000. If prices slip into that range, this supply gap could potentially signal limited buying activity.
This aligns with my perspective. Bitcoin continues to probe the upper boundary of a historical price channel, suggesting it is poised either for a breakout or further consolidation. On March 14, I observed signs of exhaustion at the channel’s top, anticipating consolidation over the following days, which has now played out.
Bitcoin is currently struggling to break into the $85,700 bracket, testing support levels at the top of the green channel below.
On a macro scale, Bitcoin maintains relative strength against the declining US Dollar Index (DXY). On March 13, I noted Bitcoin’s performance, despite recent price softness, was robust compared to the weakening dollar.
Considering historical price patterns, I previously emphasized a post-halving cycle peak occurring roughly 500–600 days after halving events. I cautioned around Jan. 20, President Trump’s inauguration—when Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $109,300. At the time, I suggested the possibility of volatility spikes and liquidity sweeps aimed at clearing leveraged positions before any sustained upward momentum.
Since we have seen most of the ‘Trump Trade’ gains erased, to fully realize this retracement, I’d expect to see prices around $73,000, which is where Bitcoin was in November, pre-election. This move would complete the cycle and remove ‘hype’ from the market, allowing Bitcoin to continue based on fundamentals and global perception.
The above insight should not be considered financial advice. I am analyzing potential catalysts and analyzing market trends. Bitcoin will go up or down based on market forces, though I believe these factors are a part of what will influence those movements.
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