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Analysis: UMaine hockey moves up in Pairwise Rankings despite underwhelming weekend at UMass

by DigestWire member
March 11, 2025
in Sports
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Analysis: UMaine hockey moves up in Pairwise Rankings despite underwhelming weekend at UMass
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It’s a long college hockey season and every team goes through a rough patch.

The hope is that the team you follow will be playing its best hockey of the season going into the playoffs.

That certainly isn’t going to be the case for the University of Maine’s hockey team.

But, after two of its worst showings of the season in a 5-1 loss and 2-2 tie at UMass this past weekend, the Black Bears actually moved up from fourth to third in the Pairwise Rankings that mimic the NCAA Tournament selection committee’s criteria process.

That’s because Notre Dame, which finished last in the Big Ten with a 4-19-1 conference record, upset second seed Minnesota two games to one in their best-of-three quarterfinal series.

Minnesota dropped to fourth.

UMaine remained fourth in one national poll and fifth in the other.

UMaine, which has already clinched a second straight NCAA Tournament berth, wound up the regular season at 21-7-6 which is the program’s best record since the 2003-04 team went 33-8-3 and lost to Denver 1-0 in the NCAA championship game in Boston.

The team’s 13-5-6 Hockey East record earned the Black Bears a second-place finish which represents the program’s best since the 2005-06 season when it tied Boston College for second behind Boston University.

The concerning aspect of the weekend was the fact UMaine didn’t have a strong pushback performance Saturday after suffering its most lopsided loss of the season the previous night.

The Black Bears were outshot 42-23 on Saturday night but salvaged a tie because sophomore goalie Albin Boija made 40 saves. And they erased a 2-0 deficit with third-period goals from junior defenseman Luke Antonacci, his first goal since his freshman season, and junior left wing Nicholas Niemo.

Niemo, a fourth-liner, now has two goals in his last three games.

UMaine went on to earn the extra Hockey East point with a 2-0 win in the shootout.

UMaine went 5-1 in shootouts in the regular season and the opponents scored just one goal against Boija in the six of them.

The Black Bears scored eight goals in shootouts led by sophomore right wing Sully Scholle’s four goals. Niemo had two, and Charlie Russell and Harrison Scott had the others.

Unfortunately for UMaine, there are no more shootouts. Just single-elimination games in the Hockey East and the NCAA Tournaments, where games are decided in a timeless five-on-five overtime — not the five-minute, three-on-three format used during regular season games.

If you exclude empty net goals, five of UMaine’s other six losses were by one goal with the only exception being a 3-0 loss at Boston College. And there was an empty-net goal in that one.  

UMaine has made a habit of third-period comebacks to earn ties or wins.

In games in which UMaine is trailing after two periods, the Black Bears have gone 6-4-2.

Having a winning record in games when you’re trailing after two periods is very rare.

UMaine is the only team in the top 10 in the current Pairwise Rankings that has a winning record when trailing after two periods. The other nine teams in the top 10 have a combined record of 24-57-9 when behind after two periods.

Number two Michigan State has the second-best mark at 3-3-1.

Number one Boston College is 3-5-1 when trailing after two periods. Minnesota is 2-8-2, and Western Michigan is 0-3-1 in those situations.

UMaine head coach Ben Barr said following Saturday’s game that he has a “resilient group” — and he is right.

They have been all season long.

That is a tribute to the character of the players and their intense desire to win.

They always feel they are capable of coming back. There is no quit in them no matter how they are playing. But they can’t keep relying on comebacks.

They have to start playing better or it is going to be a short post-season run.

It is important to note that they have played a tough schedule in the nation’s best and deepest conference.

There are currently five Hockey East teams in the top eight in the Pairwise Rankings and six in the top 10.

Boston College is atop the Pairwise Rankings with Maine third, Boston University sixth, UConn seventh, Providence eighth and UMass tied for 10th.

The other teams in the top 10 other than No. 2 Michigan State (Big Ten), No. 4 Minnesota (Big Ten), No. 5 Western Michigan (National Collegiate Hockey Conference), No. 9 Denver (NCHC) and co-No. 10 Ohio State (Big Ten).

Since UMaine doesn’t have the abundance of high-end talent the other NCAA contenders have, they have to play to their identity — which is physical, detailed hockey.

They need to finish their hits all over the ice, get pucks in deep behind opposing defenseman and establish a swarming, productive forecheck, get bodies to the net front for screens, tips and rebounds, don’t take penalties and protect their own net front.

They will need some of their slumping veterans to begin producing again. Co-leading goal scorer and senior center Harrison Scott (16 goals) has one goal in his last 14 games; junior left wing Thomas Freel has one goal in his last 13 and senior center Nolan Renwick has one goal in his last 12.

But all are producing in other ways.

Renwick has five assists in his 12 games along with his goal; Scott has four assists to go with his goal, and Freel has provided needed physicality and a net front presence. And all are in the plus category in plus-minus with Renwick at plus-nine and Scott and Freel at plus-one.

Players are awarded a plus-one if they are on the ice when their team scores an even-strength or shorthanded goal and a minus-one if the opponent scores one.

The good news is UMaine has received four of its last 13 goals from fourth-liners and scoring depth is important, especially in the playoffs.

Wednesday’s pairings for the Hockey East first round will see No. 11 Vermont at No. 6 UMass, No. 10 New Hampshire at No. 7 UMass Lowell and No. 9 Northeastern will visit No. 8 Merrimack.

The quarterfinals begin Friday night with No. 5 Providence at No. 4 UConn and the other three will be Saturday. Third seed Boston University will host Wednesday’s highest-seeded winner at 4:30 p.m.; UMaine will entertain the second-highest seeded winner at 6 p.m. Saturday and Boston College will await the lowest-seeded survivor for a 7:30 p.m. puck drop.

The semifinals will be at 4 p.m. and 7:30 on March 20 with the title game to follow at 7:30 p.m. on March 21.

The four, four-team NCAA regionals will be held in Manchester, New Hampshire; Allentown, Pennsylvania; Toledo, Ohio; and Fargo, North Dakota, on March 28-30, with the Frozen Four being held at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis on April 10-12.

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