Since the beginning of March, Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) and Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) reflected significant volatility in Bitcoin’s price, indicating how quickly investor sentiment changed.
Over the past few days, the market has remained in net profit, which indicates that most investors retained a generally optimistic stance despite the volatility resulting in several rapid price swings.
NUPL and MVRV ratios are on-chain metrics that gauge Bitcoin market sentiment and profitability. NUPL measures the net unrealized profit or loss in the network relative to market cap (values > 0 indicate a net profit state for investors), while MVRV compares Bitcoin’s market cap to its realized cap (the aggregate cost basis of coins).
An MVRV above 1 (or NUPL above 0) signifies that the average holder is in profit, whereas values below 1 indicate holders are, on average, underwater. High MVRV (e.g.,>2.4) signals large unrealized profits (often seen near bullish peaks), while low MVRV (<1.0) signals prevalent unrealized losses (seen in bear markets).
On March 1, Bitcoin closed above $86,000, and NUPL hovered around 0.496 while MVRV stood near 1.98. Both readings pointed to a profitable market, with nearly half of Bitcoin’s market value representing unrealized gains and the average holder roughly doubling their cost basis.
The overall profitability of the market seemed to clash with the pessimistic outlook caused by Bitcoin’s drop below $90,000. A strong indication of bullish sentiment usually appears when NUPL is above 0 and MVRV is above 1, which they were, yet they had not yet reached an extreme greed threshold that might have signaled a sharp correction.
On March 2, following President Donald Trump’s announcement of a crypto reserve, Bitcoin’s price surged dramatically. This rally drove the price to a daily close above $94,000, sending NUPL to around 0.539 and MVRV to about 2.17.
The jump in both metrics suggests that many coins moved deeper into profit, particularly for newer holders who may have purchased during the latest dips. There were signs of increased trading volume, suggesting that traders and investors rushed in to capitalize on the rally.
However, by March 3, the situation reversed abruptly. Bitcoin’s price fell back into the mid-$80,000 range, giving up most of the previous day’s gains. This drop pushed NUPL down to around 0.495 and MVRV to approximately 1.98. The reduction indicates that the network’s unrealized profit quickly shrank, although the metrics did not fall below zero or approach negative territory.
The fact that they both landed near March 1 levels implies that the core market structure had not collapsed; it merely shed the fast gains from the prior day. Short-term holders may have contributed to the sell-off by taking profits or exiting losing positions. Meanwhile, many longer-term participants likely stayed profitable, which helped prevent a deeper decline in these on-chain metrics.
March 4 brought a partial recovery in Bitcoin’s price to around $87,000 by the daily close. NUPL improved slightly to 0.503, and MVRV edged back above 2.0 at around 2.01. Though the moves were modest compared to the previous two days, the slight bounce hints that the market absorbed the shakeout and stabilized.
A slight upturn in these profitability ratios suggests that holders remained in net profit. After a volatile two-day span, the average investor still had coins valued above their aggregate cost basis.
Across all four days, NUPL and MVRV remained decisively positive, demonstrating that most investors did not move into losses even with the significant drop on March 3. The market saw an initial surge in unrealized gains when the price spiked, followed by a rapid pullback that erased some of the new profits, but overall, the on-chain data shows that longer-term confidence did not waver.
Frequent profit-taking or short-term panic selling can send these metrics lower, but in this period, NUPL and MVRV never dipped to a level that would suggest a broader panic or substantial capitulation. Instead, the swings showed a typical pattern of traders reacting to big price moves while core holders primarily held on to their positions.
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