Bitcoin’s 27% slide from its $109,000 peak is below the 50-80% corrections often recorded in cycles since 2010, prompting questions about a rebound.
Data shared by Charlie Bilello on X shows that prior drawdowns of 30-40% sometimes reversed within months to new highs, with an average gain of 370%. If that trend repeats, a price near $370,880 is possible.
| Correction Period | # Days | Bitcoin High | Bitcoin Low | % Decline | # Days to New High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/14/24 to 8/5/24 | 144 | 73798 | 49314 | -33% | 237 |
| 11/10/21 to 11/21/22 | 376 | 68991 | 15480 | -78% | 469 |
| 4/14/21 to 6/22/21 | 69 | 64802 | 29031 | -55% | 120 |
| 1/8/21 to 1/22/21 | 14 | 41928 | 28543 | -31% | 18 |
| 12/17/17 to 12/15/18 | 363 | 19783 | 3122 | -84% | 1079 |
| 11/8/17 to 11/12/17 | 4 | 7879 | 5507 | -30% | 8 |
| 9/2/17 to 9/14/17 | 12 | 5014 | 2951 | -41% | 40 |
| 6/11/17 to 7/16/17 | 35 | 3018 | 1839 | -39% | 54 |
| 3/10/17 to 3/24/17 | 14 | 1326 | 892 | -33% | 48 |
| 11/30/13 to 1/14/15 | 410 | 1166 | 170 | -85% | 771 |
| 4/10/13 to 7/7/13 | 88 | 266 | 76 | -72% | 133 |
| 6/8/11 to 11/17/11 | 162 | 32 | 1.99 | -94% | 631 |
| 5/13/11 to 5/25/11 | 12 | 8.45 | 5.58 | -34% | 6 |
| 4/5/11 to 4/14/11 | 9 | 1.19 | 0.71 | -40% | 17 |
| 9/6/10 to 10/8/10 | 24 | 0.17 | 0.01 | -94% | 16 |
Bitcoin price drawdown chart (Source: Charlie Bilello via CoinDesk)
Some drawdowns exceeded 50%, occasionally reaching 94% before regaining momentum. The current move, from $109,000 to $78,900, may not mark a final low, but similar retreats have preceded rallies. When new highs followed these pullbacks, gains ranged from 40% to more than 1,500%.
Bitcoin has rebounded after previous declines, but the timing and magnitude have varied widely. After a drop of at least 30%, it has taken less than 3 months to reach a new all-time high more than 50% of the time. The longest was in 2018 when it took over 1,000 days. Since the 2020 halving, after a drop of at least 30%, it has taken an average of seven months to reach a new high.
Thus, while historical data does not guarantee future results, it hints at continued short-term pain or consolidation before we threaten $109,000.
The scope of this pullback opens the possibility of higher levels if history holds; it just may take a while. Looking at the time to a new all-time high after the last halving, past data aligns with a cycle high around October this year. Interestingly, this would also correlate with the average recovery time shown by the drawdown data above.
The post Bitcoin pullback could be set up for $370k bull run price target appeared first on CryptoSlate.
