The risk of the 2024 YR4 asteroid hitting Earth at the end of 2032 has increased again, according to NASA data.
Latest calculations have shown a 3.1% chance of the space rock making impact in just under eight years.
It is a significant change since the European Space Agency (ESA) estimated in January there was 1.2% chance of a direct hit.
More recent calculations showed the odds had fallen 2.3%. In comparison, astronomers say the chance of winning big on the lottery is about one in 14 million.
The increased odds mean the asteroid – which is around the size of a football pitch – is the most threatening to Earth in modern asteroid forecasting and would cause “severe damage” to a region if it makes impact.
Scientists continue to stress there is no need for alarm and that the odds of an impact will fluctuate. They are working to gather a better understanding of the asteroid’s trajectory.
NASA and the ESA’s Webb Space Telescope will observe the asteroid for a few more weeks before it disappears from view as it heads towards Jupiter.
It will not be able to be viewed again until 2028.
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NASA calculations show possible ‘risk corridor’
Data also currently shows if the rock enters the Earth’s atmosphere on 22 December 2032, it is likely to head along a large central belt of our planet and over numerous major cities.
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Estimates say the rock would travel “somewhere” along a “risk corridor” above areas which are home to millions of people – but NASA data does not currently say which cities and major towns would be in this zone.
NASA scientists said: “In the unlikely event that 2024 YR4 is on an impact trajectory, the impact would occur somewhere along a risk corridor which extends across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia.”
Asteroids are space rocks that scientists believe are the leftovers from the solar system’s formation 4.6 billion years ago.
Read more:
What we know about the asteroid
Nuclear weapon ‘could deflect asteroid’
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There are millions of rocks orbiting between Mars and Jupiter in a region known as the main asteroid belt.
They sometimes get pushed out of the belt and pick up a new course, such as this one.
Experts have already said it will be no surprise to them if the impact probability eventually drops to zero “at some point”.
