That the United States chose to hold talks with Russia about Ukraine without Ukraine sums up the power imbalance that is upending security assumptions for the whole of Europe.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian president, has consistently warned that Kyiv must have a seat at the negotiating table for any discussions about ending Vladimir Putin‘s war to have a chance of success. His European allies also want to have a voice.
Yet these requests were ignored by Donald Trump and his strongman approach to diplomacy, with the president instead dispatching his top diplomat and two other senior envoys to meet Russian counterparts in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday.
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Mr Zelenskyy, apparently by chance, had been due to embark on a pre-planned trip to the kingdom later that same day.
However, he decided to delay the visit to avoid the appearance of giving any kind of legitimacy to the bilateral encounter between Moscow and Washington.
Unfortunately for Kyiv, beyond noisy protest, it has very limited options when it comes to channelling the disruptive force of the Trump White House in its favour.
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The Ukrainian military remains hugely reliant on US weapons to fight Russia’s invasion and Mr Zelenskyy has made clear he would want an American element in any international security force that might be agreed upon to monitor a ceasefire – even though this is a role the US appears reluctant to fill and the Kremlin has said would be “unacceptable”.
It means Mr Trump has significant leverage over his Ukrainian counterpart which he will surely use to try to force through negotiations even on terms less favourable to Kyiv.
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The US has already reportedly tried to make Ukraine sign away a large portion of its natural resources to pay for US support – an uncomfortable offer that Mr Zelenskyy has so far declined but an indication of the new transactional approach to US foreign policy.
Mr Trump has repeatedly vowed to end Russia’s war in Ukraine – even claiming during the US election campaign that he would do this within 24 hours.
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But he never spelled out how.
The past week, however, has offered an indication of the direction of travel and it does not look good for Ukraine.
From unilaterally picking up the phone to Vladimir Putin to sanctioning such a high-level meeting with the Russians in Riyadh, the only currency that seems to matter to the White House is power and right now both Kyiv and its European partners are looking all too weak.
