JERUSALEM — When Hamas threatened to call off the planned release of three Israeli hostages last week, U.S. President Donald Trump stepped into the picture with an unexpected ultimatum.
Speaking in the Oval Office, Trump called on Hamas to release all of the more than 70 hostages it is holding by noon on Saturday. Otherwise, he warned, “all hell is going to break loose.”
“They’ll find out what I mean. Saturday at 12,” Trump declared. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in lockstep with the president, hinted the entire deal could collapse.
Hamas ended up releasing the three hostages as originally planned. Netanyahu freed scores of Palestinian prisoners in return, and Trump’s noon deadline came and went with no further hostage releases.
The drama was the latest glimpse of Trump’s Mideast diplomacy — a world of big declarations, chaotic unpredictability and mixed results.
In some cases, this approach has yielded great dividends — most notably the 2020 Abraham Accords between Israel and four Arab countries. But it also has threatened to destabilize an already unstable region and shown little success resolving Israel’s decades-old conflict with the Palestinians.
Here are a few takeaways from Trump’s first month in office:
A surprise Gaza proposal
Trump has built his career on tough talk, threats and ultimatums — along with surprises that supporters say are meant to shake up the status quo.
Trump’s boldest and most controversial plan so far has been his call for all of Gaza’s 2 million people to be removed from the territory, for the U.S. to then take “ownership” and then to oversee a yearslong reconstruction process. The Palestinians, he says, would not be allowed to return — a nightmare for a people whose core grievance is the mass displacement they suffered during Israel’s creation 76 years ago. The Palestinians have rejected the plan out of hand.
Trump has not said how this plan would work, where Palestinians would go, who would take them in or who would pay. Human rights groups and international law experts believe the plan would amount to a war crime.
It is not clear whether the plan is a serious proposal or an attempt to shock the region’s players into returning to the negotiating table. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday the plan “is right on the dot. It’s the right plan.”
Israelis love him
If Israel were part of the United States, it would be a bright red state when it comes to presidential politics. Opinion polls last November showed Israelis overwhelmingly believed Trump would be better for their country than Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.
That support has shown no signs of softening. Early this month, Netanyahu was warmly received as the first foreign leader to visit the White House, where Trump unveiled his plan for Gaza.
While the idea of a mass transfer of Palestinians was once an idea of Israel’s most radical ultranationalist fringe, Netanyahu has warmly embraced it since it was floated by Trump.
Since then, the Israelis appear to be taking their cues from Trump. Netanyahu repeatedly consulted with the Americans during last week’s standoff.
Hosting U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Netanyahu once again called Trump “the greatest friend that Israel has ever had” in the White House.
He said the two nations stood “shoulder to shoulder” in confronting archenemy Iran and that he was working in “full cooperation” with Trump on a postwar plan for Gaza. He even adopted Trump’s language in threatening to open “the gates of hell” on Hamas if remaining hostages aren’t released. Yet he has continued with ceasefire talks at the prodding of the Americans.
Arab angst
America’s closest Arab allies have rejected Trump’s plans, which pose an existential threat to the Palestinian cause and their own stability. But some also face the threat of Trump cutting off badly needed aid.
King Abdullah II of Jordan, one of Trump’s hoped-for destinations for uprooted Palestinians, gently refused the plan during his own White House visit last week.
Egypt, which borders Gaza and has been named as another potential landing spot for displaced Palestinians, has also ruled it out.
A key test for Trump is Rubio’s visit to Saudi Arabia on Monday.
Trump and Netanyahu have made clear they would like to see the establishment of full diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
But the Saudis oppose the mass transfer of Palestinians out of Gaza and want a clear pathway for Palestinian independence as part of any normalization deal with Israel. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s accusations that Israel committed “genocide” in Gaza could also complicate the talks.
After the war
Trump’s postwar plan has sent shockwaves across the region.
Endorsing the forced expulsion of millions of Palestinians would be risky for U.S. allies.
The populations of countries like the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt are deeply sympathetic to the Palestinian people and going along with such a plan could trigger domestic unrest. Egypt has warned it could endanger its peace agreement with Israel — a cornerstone of regional stability for nearly half a century.
At the same time, Trump’s plan appears to have bred a sense of urgency. Egypt says it is now working on its own postwar plan for Gaza and is set to host an Arab summit later this month.
Rubio has said that if others don’t like the American ideas, they should offer an alternative. “It may have shocked and surprised many, but what cannot continue is the same cycle where we repeat over and over again and wind up in the exact same place,” he said.
From the Arabs’ perspective, what has been tried and failed for decades is America’s unquestioning support for Israel as it occupies lands the Palestinians want for a future state, expands settlements and tries to impose a military solution on the conflict — all of which is set to accelerate under Trump.
More uncertainty ahead
Trump’s Mideast team, led by envoy Steve Witkoff, played a key role in securing the current six-week ceasefire, even before taking office.
The current phase of the ceasefire is set to expire in two weeks, and Netanyahu has sent mixed signals about what happens next.
Netanyahu has repeatedly threatened to resume the war, as demanded by the hard-line partners in his governing coalition.
But he also has committed to continuing negotiations on a second stage that could ultimately end the war.
It’s impossible to say which path he and his unpredictable friend in the White House will choose.
