As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade within a tight range of $96,000 to $102,000, analysts are eyeing a potential bullish catalyst in the weakening US dollar (USD). A further decline in the USD could trigger renewed bullish momentum for risk-on assets, including BTC.
Weakening USD Good For Bitcoin Price, Analyst Says
BTC has had quite a tumultuous past few days, plunging as low as $91,000 amid rising geopolitical tensions surrounding US President Donald Trump’s proposed trade tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico.
However, a temporary halt on trade tariffs targeting Mexico and Canada provided some relief for BTC, allowing the flagship cryptocurrency to rebound to $102,000 before consolidating within the $97,000 to $99,000 range at the time of writing.
Despite this price consolidation, analysts believe there is room for further growth in risk-on assets. Bitcoin investor Lark Davis recently pointed out in an X post that the USD may be on the brink of a significant correction, a development that could be bullish for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
According to Davis, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is on the verge of breaking below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a level that has historically acted as strong support. Davis emphasized the impact of a weaker dollar on risk assets, stating:
Dollar weakening is mega bullish for risk assets. While we just saw the biggest liquidation event in the history of crypto, Bitcoin has remained strong. If DXY continues to fall and with all bullish catalysts like the US SBR & nation-state Bitcoin FOMO, this could mark the next leg of the crypto bull market.
Fellow trader Bluntz echoed this sentiment, suggesting that the DXY has likely “topped for the next 1-2 years,” reinforcing the idea that Bitcoin could benefit from the dollar’s downward trajectory.
Meanwhile, data from market intelligence platform Santiment suggests that Bitcoin whales – holders with large BTC balances – are actively accumulating despite the recent market volatility. This contrasts with smaller traders, particularly those who entered the market in the past six months, who have been selling off their holdings.
Historically, such accumulation by whales has preceded significant price rallies. However, Santiment noted that it could take weeks or even months before the effects of this trend become apparent in Bitcoin’s price action.
Down And Then Up For BTC?
Despite the bullish outlook from analysts, recent on-chain data indicates that Bitcoin network activity is at its lowest level in nearly a year, signaling potential waning interest amid broader economic uncertainties.
Similarly, recent analysis by crypto analyst cryptododo7 suggests that BTC may need to fall as low as $76,000 before its next major leg up. At press time, BTC trades at $97,336, down 0.9% in the past 24 hours.
