Don’t, whatever you do, call it a “relaunch”.
When the chancellor stands up and delivers her much-anticipated speech on Wednesday – with all sorts of exciting schemes for new infrastructure and growth-friendly reforms – she will cast it as part of the new government’s long-standing economic strategy.
Having begun the job of repairing the public finances in last October’s budget, this is, Rachel Reeves will say, simply the next step.
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Regardless of whether you believe that this is all business-as-usual, it’s hard to escape the fact that the backdrop to the chancellor’s growth speech is, to say the least, challenging.
The economy has flatlined at best (possibly even shrunk) since Labour took power. Business and consumer confidence have dipped. Not all of this is down to the miserable messaging emanating from Downing Street since July, but some of it is.
Still, whether or not this constitutes a change, most businesses would welcome her enthusiasm for business-friendly reforms. And most would agree that making it easier to build infrastructure (which is a large part of her pitch) will help improve growth.
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But it’s not everything. What about the fact that the UK has the highest energy costs in the developed world? What about the fact that these costs are likely to be pushed higher by net zero policies (even if they eventually come down)? What about the fact that tax levels are about to hit the highest level in history, or that government debt levels are now rising even faster than previously expected.
None of that is especially growth-friendly.
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The greatest challenge facing the chancellor, however, is the fact that very little of what she’s talking about in her speech is actually new. Most of these schemes, from the Oxford-Cambridge Arc (or whatever they’re calling it) to the multiple new runways planned around London, are very, very old. They’ve been blueprints for years if not decades. What’s been missing is the political will and determination to turn them into reality.
The new government may fare better at delivery. But it won’t be easy. And none of these projects will deliver growth immediately. Not until some time after the end of the parliament will they properly bear fruit.
