Donald Trump likes to discomfort his enemies.
Not to mention his friends, his partners, business adversaries, celebrity critics, anyone, in fact, who could end up on the other side of a deal.
As president of the world’s largest economy, that makes for a long list, many of them in Davos on Tuesday trying to make sense of what his second term will mean, and not getting very far.
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The World Economic Forum is a body that likes to think it has the answers. The annual conference attracts leaders from business, politics and civil society, gathering to share their wisdom and cut deals on the side.
Less than 48 hours into Trump II not only are they struggling for answers, they’re yet not clear what the question is.
For European political leaders, already exposed to soaring US growth rates, Trump’s still-vague threats to “tax and tariff” could pose a fundamental threat to economic cooperation and stability.
In the absence of firm policy, they promised to work with Trump, but not at all costs.
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European Commission president Ursula Von der Leyen conceded that the harmonious world order imagined at the turn of the century is dead – “Instead we have a new era of harsh geo-strategic competition.”
The race is one, she said, but not to the bottom. “We will be pragmatic but we will always stand by our principles… because that is the European way.”
Outgoing German chancellor Olaf Scholz, already a victim of the European populist wave, acknowledged the uncertainty.
“President Trump and his government will keep the world in suspense in the coming years,” he said. “We can and will deal with that, without unnecessary agitation and outrage, but also without false ingratiation or telling people what they want to hear.”
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A glance at the tech billionaires lined up in front of the cabinet at the inauguration, behind only the Trump family, suggests that may be wishful thinking.
Ukraine
The most coherent response came from the European leader with most to lose.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy asked not what Trump will do to help defeat Russia, but what Europe will do to remain relevant.
He painted a picture of a US administration striking deals with Russia and China while Europe looked on, a fundamental challenge and a call to arms that made the continents’ leaders shift in their seats.
For business, the implications are less grave but no less knotty.
Business reaction
Bankers and investors are braced for the upside of a president who will measure success by the stock market as much as poll ratings, The crypto crowd meanwhile have a spring in their snowshoes.
Others hope economic reality will outrun rhetoric.
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In the face of Trump’s rejection of renewables and a promise to “drill baby, drill”, Henrik Anderson, chief executive of Danish wind turbine manufacturer Vestas, was not being blown off course
“The US is our largest market, I listened to most of it [the inauguration] before I went to bed last night, and I slept well overnight,” he told Sky News.
“This is the new administration coming into play, some of the legislation will either change or continue, but what I think we will see is that creating the energy he needs will also create jobs.”
Others are not so sure. “F****** hell,” said one prominent British chief executive with a shake of the head.
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Donald Trump has everyone guessing, which is just the way he likes it.
