In Moscow on Friday, a couple of days before Donald Trump’s inauguration as US president, two of the West’s main adversaries – Russia and Iran – will sign a strategic partnership pact.
It will deepen a relationship that has blossomed since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Should the West be worried? Not according to Russia.
“This agreement, like our treaty with North Korea, is not directed against anyone,” foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said earlier this week, referring to a similar pact Moscow signed with Pyongyang last year.
That treaty, however, included a mutual defence clause, with both countries pledging to come to the other’s aid if needed.
It instantly rang alarm bells in Washington, Kyiv, Seoul and beyond.
And now, little more than six months later, Ukraine says it has captured two North Korean soldiers on the battlefield – proof it claims that Russia has deployed thousands of Pyongyang’s troops to the frontline.
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It suggests the West’s fears were well-founded.
I expect the partnership with Iran will cause similar concern.
“Russia’s foreign policy major organising principle is now the prosecution of its war in Ukraine,” Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre, told Sky News.
“Every country is assessed through the lens of what this country can bring to the battlefield effort. How can this country help Russia withstand economic pressure? And how can this relationship be instrumentalised by hard men in the Kremlin to punish the West?
“Iran neatly fits into the category.”
The US and UK have already accused Tehran of providing Moscow with ballistic missiles and drones for use against Ukraine.
Both Russia and Iran deny the claim.
But defence is an area where the two countries will cooperate more closely as a result of this new partnership, which Mr Gabuev describes as the “symbolic icing on the cake”.
“The real cooperation is the underwater part of the iceberg, where Russia purchases drones, and designs for drones and missiles and various types of weapons that it needs for the battlefield in Ukraine,” he said.
“In return, Iran gets Russian technical expertise.”
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According to the Kremlin, the timing for the treaty signing is purely coincidental, and has nothing to do with Mr Trump’s inauguration.
“Let the conspiracy theorists entertain themselves,” said Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Coincidence or not, the optics are convenient for Russia.
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The pact serves as a pointed reminder to the West that the world is changing, and that, in Moscow’s view, the US-led rules-based global order is crumbling.
Mr Putin often speaks of his desire to create a multipolar world, free from Western imperialism and the hegemony of America.
He wants to show that his attempts are working, despite the West’s efforts to isolate Russia.
First North Korea, now Iran – solidarity through sanctions.
